The New Hampshire primaries are finally over...a record turnout of close to half a million people and unexpected comebacks that stumped political pundits. It was a remarkable victory for Hillary Clinton precisely because the results hinged on a wild card: votes from independents who outnumbered both registered Democrats and Republicans in a previously staunchly red state.
As the voting continued through the day, news channels reported that polling stations were, in fact, running low on blue ballots. Ironically, independent votes also ensured the return of John McCain among the Republican candidates. But Clinton's victory was the bigger bombshell for analysts who, only hours before the unanticipated became the imminent, had had no hope for her unless she "rehauled" her campaign strategies.
The experts had gravely shaken their hands reacting to Bill Clinton's attack on Obama on Monday and had made predictions on how the "spouse-effect" will ultimately backfire in New Hampshire. So what are we to make of Obama's win at the Iowa Caucus followed by the "surprising" resurrection of Clinton in New Hampshire? Simply that "exit polls" are not to be trusted in private voting (i.e. in a primary as opposed to an open show of support in a caucus) and that hasty conclusions do not make sense when only less than one per cent of the country has voted so far. It is true that the NH primary has an aura about it and not without reason: since 1952, 12 out of 14 presidential candidates have won this primary before finally making it to the White House.
And the Democratic primary was supposed to be a fairly good weather vane to indicate that voters were working through the political mudslinging (carried out by both the Obamans and the Clintonites) that they have witnessed over the past few months. But tonight's results have done little to clarify who the Democratic presidential nominee will be.
Obama reportedly received praises even from conservative quarters and was a clear favourite among single young women voters in Iowa. But in NH it was Clinton who had the support of women voters.
It is also true that young voters were a determining factor in both the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primaries. And that means even the youth voted differently in the two states: while Iowa rooted for the "change" and the "charisma" that Obama stands for, NH chose to rally behind the "experience" that the Clinton campaign-speak has made much of. In other words, a caucus and a primary later, and given the narrow margin by which Clinton pulled off her victory in NH, all that one can safely predict is that the Clinton-Obama race will get tougher in the days to come.
Analysts also might want to go back to both Iowa and NH to see if race was an issue that influenced voters. It is likely to be a deciding factor in the upcoming primaries in the southern state of South Carolina.
As Americans begin to show their preference for a new president (and we cannot, for a moment, ignore the race among the Republicans here), willy-nilly, the world wonders about the impact of that choice.
Earlier today, CNN aired an interview with "Mama" Sarah, living in the Kenyan village of Nyangamo Kogelo. While preparing feed for her livestock in the backyard of her hut, the 83-year-old spoke of her deep disappointment with Kenyan politicians and of her hopes resting with her grandson and a US presidential hopeful Barack Hussein Obama.
Many Kenyans, she added, see Obama as a role model, and a symbol of leadership and "change". But "change", the "buzzword" for the US Elections 2008, is also fast becoming a "fuzzword" that all candidates seem to be endlessly droning about in their campaign speeches. Voters might need something more concrete to make up their minds.
The NH Primaries are merely the second stop in a series of caucuses, primaries and conventions that will continue till December 2008. And tonight should tell us that it is too early to consider dropping out of the race or make too much of early wins and comebacks.
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I couldn't agree more with Sakina, Obama campaign needs all the support it can garner and if anything it is going to bolster his race. This by no means can be termed as a loss. Well the emotional burst was just part of a skit that was done at an opportunist time and wouldn't be surprised to see more on its way and Obama and his supporter should be ready for this. ...
ReplyDear Aniruddha,that is why I SAY LIFE IS A PARADOX.
ReplyIn any context.
Clinton FAMILY IS REAL FAMILY,No pun intended,but to understand the descent behaviour by both husband,wife and their daughter during the tough times of the then President of U.S.A. Mr. Clinton all says so. Truth prevails and I firmly beleive, Lady Hillary would be the next President of U.S.A.
I wish from my heart for the success of this great Family
Vinay Mahajan ...
Did the voters in NH watch the democratic debate that happened nights before the NH vote. Do they not realize that Hilary regurgitated the words of John Edwards and Barack Obama as her own while adding tears for effect during her luncheon with the ladies in NH? I thought the people of NH wanted an Honest Candidate with vision and the ability to bring Change to the US of A? I would not say that Barack had a loss in NH with 101,000 votes, he is very much in the running and the news media seems to be leaving this out with their news the night of the 8th and the morning of the 9th. People keep your eye on the ball. Barack Obama claimed 101,000 odd votes without giving in to negative press of his oposition. I commend you Barrack, on the manner in which you are conducting this race. There are people wout there who hold this in high regard. If it were possible, you would have my vote.
Reply...
hello dr m. i see you are using your downtime fruitfully. heard you had broken some bone skating on the thin ice of a new day? ...
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