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Anirudh Bhattacharyya

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Thursday , March 06, 2008 at 02 : 05

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John McCain Wins Big


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During the winter of 2007 I spoke to several Republicans (as I did to Democrats) to gauge the mood within the party with regard to the US Presidential elections which were to be held just about a year later.

There was one word to describe their reaction - dejection.

They expected a blowback from the voters on the Iraq war, on the economy, on the George W Bush Administration.

Just about three months later, everything has changed for the Republicans. Groans have changed to chuckles; frowns to smiles.

And that's exactly why Arizona Senator John McCain won big on March 4, 2008.

First, McCain captured the Republican party nomination. Now he has plenty of time to revitalize the party, forge a strategy on the principal issues that will confront him in the November election, build a coherent team; create a grassroots network throughout America and raise tens of millions of dollars for that contest. And all that while the two Democratic contenders, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, try to destroy each other.

Winning big on March 4 was just part of what helped him enormously. The bigger factor though is the lack of a Democratic candidate. And given how things have shaped up, there is unlikely to be a nominee till the Democratic National Convention is held in Denver in late August. By then, McCain would have had six clear months to campaign and unite his party.

More than that, he doesn't even have to rely on negative advertising against the Democrats. They will do that for him.

The Clinton campaign used the "kitchen sink" strategy against Obama in the days leading up to the March 4 primaries in Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island and Vermont.

Among the issues they raised were the 'red phone' commercial which was meant to show Obama was too inexperienced to be President. Other attacks were about how he was only about words and about how those words were often plagiarised. Hillary Clinton wanted to show off her additional years in Washington as a plus. Unfortunately for her, McCain has multiple terms in the US Senate and such an attack won't work on him. Similarly, there are the attacks on the Obama campaigns flip flop on NAFTA. And finally, what is red meat for the Republican base, Hillary Clinton, during an interview, responded to a question on whether she believed Obama was a Muslim (since his middle name is Hussein), by saying she did think so with the deliberate "as far as I know" throw in to create enough doubt.

The Obama campaign is hitting back after being stung by the last minute barrage before the March 4 primaries. First, they want Hillary Clinton to release her income tax returns, something she refused to do before March 4 using the argument she hadn't had enough time. They are also asking for the papers from the Clinton Presidential library to be released. These documents could well damage her because the Clintons' have been alleged to have financial ties with countries like Saudi Arabia and several in Central Asia, where despots rule.

The sharp negativity of the public remarks by each candidate against the other provides enough fodder for the Republicans to pick up on and use as readymade television advertising, with the credible subtext, "Look, your own party doesn't trust you, why should American voters?"

The other issues afflicting the Democrats is the level of animosity between the candidates which is even worse among their supporters. The only word to describe how many of these supporters feel about their rivals is "hatred". White women and Latinos, the spine of the Clinton campaign, loathe Obama, use "Hussein" as a pejorative and many post regular comments on blogs that if Obama (often spelt by them as Osama) is the nominee, they would rather vote for McCain. That sentiment is shared by the young and African-American voters who state clearly they would rather stay away from voting than vote for Hillary Clinton. In fact, there is a growing feeling within the Obama movement that if he is denied the nomination, he should form a third party and contest the election in November.

As the primary cycle for the Democrats continues, eventually on to a bloody Convention battle, this rift between the two camps will become a chasm.

The Democratic drama reminds me of the film Dumb And Dumber. Two friends, played by Jim Carrey and Jeff Daniels, have a crush on the same girl and try to sabotage each other's attempts to get her. Finally, she walks off with another man.

In November, that man could well be John McCain and the belle being courted, the post of President of the United States.

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