"It is perception that matters more than reality in politics." That's as old an adage as politics itself... and the Clinton camp seems to have accomplished its mission in South Carolina... Not winning, but sounding like winners even in a possible defeat! How? By effectively conceding South Carolina even before voting starts.. but yet at the same time, setting the bar so high for Obama that even a reduced margin of victory for him would appear no less bigger than a loss!

So what does Obama need to do in South Carolina to regain the momentum ( desperately ) before Super Tuesday? First, and foremost, win by a double digit margin in South Carolina.

Is it possible? Very much. A cursory glance at a couple of statistics will give the reason. Almost 50% of the Democratic voters in the 2004 primary were African Americans. While most pundits are predicting African Americans to again make up half of the electorate, my own gut feeling is that the figure could be significantly higher ( between 55 - 60%).

And no prizes for guessing the reason. A fellow African American' s (Obama 's) candidacy. And if such a higher turnout materialises, then Obama could actually end up capturing a much larger share of their vote (around 70 - 75%) than what most polls suggest (60 - 65%).

And while most opinon polls are showing Obama barely winning 10 - 20% of the white voters, it may still not hurt him. Because Edwards could eat them up, not Hillary.

Having done a few polls for assembly and corporation elections during my college days (and luckily managed to get almost all of them right), my rough calculation is that Obama will conservatively get at least 42.5% of the total vote and in a highly optimistic scenario, could even touch 48 - 50% vote share.

In both scenarios, he 'll win by double digits... (all of this is assuming Barrack captures 70% of the African American votes). But equally interesting to watch will be how Edwards performs? I get a squealy feeling that John Edwards may run Hillary very close for 2nd place and could even beat her if he polls 50% of the white vote and 5% of the African American vote. Neither of which is impossible.

So, the question in South Carolina is not who will win, but by how much? And that could play a big role in creating momentum for either Obama or Clinton ahead of their very own Super Bowl clash on Feb 5th.