"We have 272 and growing."
This was the statement of Congress President Sonia Gandhi in 1999 outside the portals of Rashtrapati Bhavan. The prospects of yet another Congress-led government were getting brighter. Till one man decided to play spoilsport. The school teacher pehelwan of Uttar Pradesh, Mulayam Singh yadav. The socialist leader made a U-turn almost overnight, deciding to listen to his inner voice and withdrawing his support to the Congress. Since that evening, a lot of water has flowed under the bridge. And Mulayam Singh Yadav is back in business in the corridors of power of the capital. In 1998 he was the spoiler; in 2008 he is being wooed as the saviour.
That's the nature of Indian politics. How many times have you heard this popular saying: in politics there are no permanent friends or enemies. Or this one: in politics there are no full stops only commas. So, today, Sonia Gandhi - who criss-crossed the length of UP just a year back, harping on the state's jungle raj under the Samajwadi Party regime - is dispatching her emissaries to confabulate with the same group. Mulayam's deputy Amar Singh, known to be the socialite socialist, is watching all the drama unfolding from far off Denver. Recently in a statement he claimed that so far no Congress leader has got in touch with him. So what do we make out of it? He is just waiting for a phone call from a prominent Congress person to take the plunge?
The question that has to be asked is why both Congress and the SP are so desperate to get married now. Why is the SP willing to play ball with an incumbent government that is struggling to control price rise? In times of double-digit inflation, does it make sense for the SP to support the Congress and in the process also ruin its own collars with some of the Congress muck? Mulayam Singh Yadav and Amar Singh realise that their base is not as strong as it was on their home turf in UP. Mayawati's sweeping majority is giving nightmares to the country's politicians. There hasn't been a single leader of substance who wouldn't have asked me, "Mayawati ki kitni seaten aayengi? (How many seats will Mayawati win?)"
Although in all fairness, the SP had managed to hold on to its core Muslim-Yadav vote in the last Assembly elections, but it could not add anything to its kitty. So the SP is now working on an alternate strategy - ally with the Congress, get all the fringe groups under one umbrella and then take on Mayawati. Of course, in this entire scheme of things we are not even talking about the other party which is hopeful of returning to power at the Centre: the BJP.
But what does the Congress get in return? Can Sonia Gandhi forgive and forget the abusive campaign carried on by the SP over the last decade against the Congress? How many times has she been targeted for being a videshi bahu, a lady with no political base? More importantly does it make sense for the party to get the support of one group to stay in power for a few months more?
At the dinner function organised to celebrate UPA's four years in power, the surprise visitor was Amar Singh. But when he actually came in and went to greet his friends, the Karats, who were seated on the same table as Mrs Gandhi, there was not even a the customary exchange of glances between the two. Sonia kept eating from her plate while Amar Singh shook hands with everyone on the same table. Those who know Sonia Gandhi well claim that she is not one to forget things in a hurry.
In that scenario, what can be the fate of such a marriage of convenience? What's the price that Mulayam Singh and Amar Singh will ask for in return for bailing the Congress out at this juncture? A senior Cabinet minister whom I was talking to recently summed it up nicely. For the UPA government to get out of the nuclear conundrum, the two Ambani brothers will have to launch a joint operation. Anil Ambani's love for the Samajwadi Party and his brother Mukesh's close proximity to the Congress is of course quite well known.
And I wonder what will happen to Mr Bachchan? He may not have anything to do with the intricacies of the nuclear deal, but an SP-Congress tie up will throw up some questions for him, too. The Samajwadi Party comes with a lot of baggage: Anil Ambani, Subroto Roy, Amitabh Bachchan! A trio for whom 10, Janpath, is not a favourable destination. I actually had asked Big B in a recent interview where would he stand if the SP and Congress came together. His answer summed up his feelings: "AT HOME".
After all, the Gandhis had failed to turn up even at the funeral of his mother, Teji Bachchan. This despite the fact that the superstar was the best man at Sonia and Rajiv Gandhi's marriage. So will Amar Singh finally break bread with Sonia Gandhi? And when he does that, will he get Amitabh Bachchan with him, too? As the political drama peaks this summer, watch this space for more on new friendships.
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One good thing which the SP can do now-it has got a golden opportunity to help the country clinch the deal.SP'S share of 39 seats can save both the govt and the deal...It s time the left z shown its true place-ROAD.tat z wre the party goes each time isn't.These r changing times and left needs to rationally change its outlook if it intends surviving in modern India/.. So Cong-SP alliance if possible and continues in next elections..this signals probably changing times in UP-NIGHTMARE 4 BJP...the poor party with its prime ministerial candidate(an extremist) is nowhere in the scenario...bettr luck BJP and Left ...
ReplyWhy not look at another scenario. Double speak and duplicity of Indian Politicians is well known. SO might have been set up by Left parties to ensure that: -1. They walk out of the alliance denouncing MMS %26 USA2. Congress and allies still manage a working majority and avoid elections to the satisfaction of everybody.3. SP extracts its pound of flesh and weakens the government further.4. With neither MMS nor PC in a position to control inflation, things may deteriorate further. This gives ground to SP to pull the chord and walk out for the benefit of %22Aam Aadmi%22(!)5. With Congress leaders running like headless chickens over next 3-4 months commencing 3rd July 2008, the Janata may get fed up with Congress reducing its lead position further. 6. With no clear majority and coalition becoming a necessity, secular forces join again under leadership of %22Mulayam Singh%22 with strategic backing of Karat.7. Karat is shrewd, intelligent, dogmatic, consistant. Rare qualities among politicians. He knows he cannot be a king but can always remain Kingmaker. The ultimate 'Chanakya' ...
ReplySP has to align with %22secular%22 Congress at some point or the other as it cannot join hands with %22communal%22 BJP for sure until next election.The minor irritation it faces is that with present political problems Congress has with the left, SP bailing out congress will be an %22antileft%22 action which is the main cause for worry. Therefore, SP has to invent a %22good%22 reason to back up congress and we have to wait and watch for this next Innovation !Very soon congress will attain the status of a minority and SP is a well known champion of Minorities. Therefore,their supporting congress will be perfectly justified. ...
ReplyThat politics knows no one particular language is quite an established fact now. The situation in recent times has worsened further, with ideals and concern for larger public good giving way to compromises and adjustments. If the foreign policies and strategic interests of the country is curtailed by compromises that the centre has to make to please its coalition partner, the development of the country becomes a stake. Let this be a clarion call for all Indians - to embrace nothing that curtails our development. ...
ReplyIn politics no permanent enemies or friends. Both Congress and SP have to tackle Mayawathi's BSP . This is the main reason for Mullayam trying to have a knot with Congress . Both parties are in bad shape in UP and no other go as at present . ...
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