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Analysis: How Karnataka 'castes' its votes
Published on Tue, Apr 29, 2008 at 22:34, Updated on Wed, Apr 30, 2008 at 11:00 in Nation section
Tags: Assembly Elections 2008, Karnataka
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The voting pattern among the dominant castes confirms the pattern discerned in the 2004 election, though the BJP vote share among the Lingayat community has witnessed a marginal decline.
Lingayat vote split in Yedyurappa’s home
It is important to note that in the Hyderabad-Karnataka region, the Lingayat community vote appears equally split between the BJP and the Congress. This could account for the Congress appearing to do well in this region.
In the Central Karnataka region (the home of BJP leader Yedyurappa) the support of the Lingayat community appears divided among the three major parties.
In the Southern Karnataka region, a majority from among the Vokkaliga community appear to back the Janata Dal(S). This could have accounted for the BJP being relegated to the third position by the Congress in this region.
On the other hand, in the Bangalore region there is no major difference in the vote share of the Janata Dal (S) and Congress from among the Vokkaligas.
The non-dominant OBC’s have become increasingly politically assertive in the past few decades. Their support appears to once again divided among the three major parties with the Congress having a clear edge.
This could also be in reaction to the support extended to the BJP and the JD(S) by the two dominant castes. The high level of support for the Congress among the non-dominant OBCs in the Hyderabad Karnataka region could be on account of this factor.
The Congress appears to have won the support of the majority of the Dalit voters with the balance being more or less equally divided between the BJP and the JD(S).
No gains for the BSP
As yet the BSP has not made much of a dent in the Dalit vote of Congress. The tribals have a significant presence in select pockets. The delimitation exercise has recognized their presence and the number of seats reserved for tribals has witnessed a sharp increase.
A large chunk of the tribal vote appears to be with the Congress with the balance again being equally split between the BJP and the Janata Dal(S). The tribals have a strong presence in pockets of Hyderabad –Karnataka region and they appear to back the Congress here.
The Muslim voters clearly are with the Congress with a very small percentage supporting the Janata Dal(S) and the BJP. The Janata Dal(S) has clearly lost support within the community on account of its forming the government with the BJP. The greater support for the Congress in the coastal Karnataka region has quite a bit to do with the consolidation of the minority vote.
(Dr Padmavath is the Karnataka coordinator of the survey and a senior social science faculty at the International Academy for Creative Teaching, Bangalore. Dr Veena Devi is the Karnataka supervisor for the survey and reader in political science, Bangalore University)
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The exit polls suggest sweep for the BJP in the second phase . I think the pre-poll survey has gone
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Dear Sir,
We have seen in the past 40 months rulling of the congress and JD(S) government and JD(S)and BJP in
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Survey doesn't explain why in last local body election-- the best represented sample survey-- JD made impressive gains. Seeing results,
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Who are "Adivasis" in karnataka?
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