Analysis: How Karnataka 'castes' its votes

NO GAIN IN HOME GROUND: Yedyurappa is losing the Lingayat vote in Central Karnataka.

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Keywords: Dalits, Vokkaliga

The CNN-IBN-Deccan Herald–CSDS survey is one of the largest surveys of its kind that allows us to map the political sociology of voting in the state.

Caste has always been recognised as an important indicator of political choice and preference. In recent years it has emerged as a visible political identity and potent form of assertion of political presence.

Karnataka politics has often revolved around the intricacies of dominant caste politics. Though numerically less than one fourth of the states population, the Lingayat and Vokkaliga community have always accounted for more than half the legislators in the Assembly.

The present pre-poll survey indicates that this old understanding needs to be revised. In a quiet way and perhaps without any clear design, the Congress seems to be rebuilding a coalition of the bottom of the social pyramid and recovering what used to be the social base of the Congress in the earlier era.

Congress gains from below

While the upper social bloc is more or less evenly divided between the three major political players, the lower social bloc is clearly polarised in favour of the Congress. This is what appears to be giving the Congress a clear edge in this electoral race.

The BJP appears to have a sight edge over the Congress in the support it draws from the upper castes across the various political regions of the state.

This is not surprising given the fat that the traditional support base of the party has been from among the Upper Castes including those who have migrated to the state in recent decades.

The dominant peasant communities follow their traditional loyalties, but the regional differences prevent these from voting en-bloc for any party. The Vokkaliga community appears to be evenly divided between the Congress and the Janata Dal(S) with the BJP garnering the support of a little less than twenty per cent of the members of that community.

The majority among the Lingayat community voters appear to favour the BJP. This explains the vote share projected for the party in the Mumbai-Karnataka region.