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Analysis: What if Pakistan's Opposition wins?
Published on Sun, Feb 17, 2008 at 18:42, Updated on Mon, Feb 18, 2008 at 08:14 in 
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Italian politicians in times of political turmoil have been known to call impending elections a "bridge to the unknown". This is an apt metaphor for the nationwide parliamentary vote set to occur in Pakistan on Monday.
Assuming the vote is fair, most observers expect the opposition parties, especially those associated with slain former prime minister Benazir Bhutto and former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, to outpoll the party connected to the increasingly unpopular President Pervez Musharraf.
What comes after that is the mystery, but in any scenario the United States will face more daunting challenges in Pakistan -- especially in pursuing its counterterrorism objectives.
Based on polling and other indicators, the odds favor Bhutto's party coming in first, with Sharif's party second -- trailed by a handful of smaller parties, including those most closely associated with extremist factions.
The opposition parties are likely to be pushed into a fairly broad coalition by the post-election math and a shared opposition to various Musharraf policies -- ranging from his declaration of emergency rule to his dismissal of Supreme Court justices and what many Pakistanis see as an overly-close identification with the United States.
For Washington, the priorities in Pakistan must be to deprive al-Qaeda of the sanctuary it has established along Pakistan's rugged border with Afghanistan and to reverse the momentum the Taliban have achieved in attacks on both sides of the border.
Formidable as these challenges were in the period of Musharraf rule, they will become more so after the election.
Although the parties likely to assume power doubtless feel threatened by extremism, the post-electoral situation will force them to focus time and energy on more elemental things: reestablishing civilian rule after nearly a decade out of power, reversing many of Musharraf's recent actions, perhaps seeking his ouster, sorting out differences among themselves, and dealing with pent-up public frustrations about lack of services and other grievances.
In all of these arenas, a new civilian government will face a more complex landscape than its predecessors.
The country Musharraf took over from the civilians in 1999 was close to a failed state, especially in terms of its international financial standing.
Ironically, in light of Musharraf's huge unpopularity, Pakistan during his rule has attained respectable growth rates and established a generally favorable investment climate.
Along with that has come a growing middle class, a more aggressive media, and a more assertive judiciary. In at least a few respects, Musharraf is a victim of his own success.
Moreover, elected civilian leaders, presumably intent on retaining popular support, will inevitably be more sensitive to public opinion than Musharraf had to be.
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