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Arctic sea ice melting faster
Published on Wed, May 02, 2007 at 15:24, Updated on Wed, Jun 20, 2007 at 11:00 in Sci-Tech section
Tags: Arctic Ice, Colorado , Boulder
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Boulder (Colorado): Arctic sea ice is melting three times faster than many scientists project, US researchers reported Monday, just days ahead of the next major international report on climate change.
Scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research and the University of Colorado in Boulder concluded, using actual measurements that Arctic sea ice has declined at an average rate of about 7.8 per cent per decade between 1953 and 2006.
By contrast, 18 computer models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a UN-sponsored climate research group, estimated an average rate of decline of 2.5 per cent per decade over the same period, the researchers said.
International delegates are meeting in Bangkok, Thailand, this week to hammer out the final wording of the third IPCC report.
Both the observations cited in the new study and projections from the IPCC computer models are for September, when Arctic sea ice is typically at its low point for the year. For March, when the ice is typically at its most extensive, the new study found the rate of decline was 1.8 per cent per decade, about three times larger than the mean from the computer models.
The researchers said their observations indicate the retreat of summertime Arctic sea ice is about 30 years ahead of the pace projected by climate models.
"While the ice is disappearing faster than the computer models indicate, both observations and the models point in the same direction: the Arctic is losing ice at an increasingly rapid pace and the impact of greenhouse gases is growing," said NCAR scientist Marika Holland, one of the study's co-authors.
Gavin Schmidt, a climate researcher at the Goddard Institute for Space Studies who wasn't involved in the study, said the study is "a good reminder that uncertainty in model projections cuts both ways." Critics of some global warming scenarios say the models exaggerate the potential problems.
"My feeling (along with the authors) is that it is likely that the models are insufficiently sensitive," Schmidt said in an e-mail to The Associated Press.
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