BJP has no chances in K'taka polls, says Krishna

IN POLL MODE: SM Krishna says inflation will have an impact on the upcoming Assembly elections in Karnataka.

        

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Keywords: Congress , Karnataka

With just five weeks to go, does Congress seriously expect to win the elections in Karnataka? That’s the key issue Karan Thapar explores with former chief minister and now Chairman of the party’s Election Management and Co-ordination Committee, S M Krishna on the Devil’s Advocate.

Karan Thapar: Mr Krishna, given all the problems the Congress faces, can you concede that it’s extremely unlikely that your party is going to win the elections?

S M Krishna: Well, whenever we have fought the elections, we have fought with certain odds within ourselves. But every time except, perhaps, 2004, we have come out on top. So I’m sure we will make it.

Karan Thapar: Those could be brave words. Let’s look at some of the serious problems you face. To begin with, the BJP believes they have a sympathy wave behind them and given that their vote-share has increased by nearly 700 per cent, from 4.1 per cent in 1989 to 28 per cent in 2004, if they do have a sympathy wave, they will literally sweep power.

S M Krishna: Well, I think they have peaked in 2004 and I don’t think they have any further to go.

Karan Thapar: On what basis do you say they’ve peaked?

S M Krishna: Well, I think Congress party has proved a point that

a. It can provide a stable government to the state.

b. It can provide sustainable programmes.

Karan Thapar: The government you formed in 2004 didn’t even last for two years.

S M Krishna: You are talking of a coalition government, I am talking about a Congress government, not Congress-led government.

Karan Thapar: But the Congress government you led for five years may have lasted its full term but they got badly defeated in the polls. You came back with almost 40 per cent of your seats lost.

S M Krishna: Well, there were very important reasons, you know. We had four continous years of drought. We had the Cauvery problem and then Veerappan problem. All these problems made the people restless. The biggest factor for the Congress’ defeat in 2004 – if I can say it – is the drought that haunted Karnataka for three successive years.

Karan Thapar: And this year you have inflation but let’s come to the problems you face this time. You see, it’s not just that the BJP believes they have a sympathy wave, your vote-share is under attack. People who should be your allies like the Samajwadi Party are, instead supporting your rivals – the JDS. The Bahujan Samaj Party is contesting every single one of the 224 seats. Your vote-share is going to be eaten into and you’re going to be attacked from both sides.

S M Krishna: Well, in an election, we do face such developments.

Karan Thapar: But this is a pincer attack.

S M Krishna: BSP even fought in 2004. They had set up a few candidates.

Karan Thapar: But they’re much stronger now.

S M Krishna: This time they may set up more candidates, I’m not disputing that but Samajwadi Party and various other, smaller parties have never been a factor in elections in Karnataka.

Karan Thapar: But look this time and see why they could be a factor. It’s not just that the BJP’s stronger. It’s not just that your vote-share’s being eaten into. Worst of all, inflation is cutting into your popularity. When it was 6.68 per cent last week, people were already blaming Congress in Delhi. Now that it’s seven per cent, they may consciously choose to vote against Congress to punish you.

S M Krishna: Well, inflation is a phenomenon which is being looked into by the Government of India. And yes, I will not rule it out as not going to be a factor – we have factored that also in our assessment.

Karan Thapar: How badly would inflation damage your electoral prospects in Karnataka?

S M Krishna: Well, it is too early to say how badly it is going to affect us.

Karan Thapar: But it will affect?

S M Krishna: It will, certainly have some impact on the…

Karan Thapar: In other words, tightly-fought seats, where with lower inflation you could have won, now with higher inflation, chances are you’re going to lose now.

S M Krishna: Well, that is a chance which we will have to take and we are ready to take that chance.

Karan Thapar: That’s the extent to which you’ve got problems. And now look what’s happened on top of inflation. Suddenly in the last few days, Hogenakkal water scheme has come to hit you like a blow. It’s an issue on which the UPA government can’t take sides, but in Karnataka, it looks like the Congress is going against the interests of Karnataka and worst of all, the BJP and the JDS do not feel any such constraint. So once again, you’ve got a problem, no one else has it.

S M Krishna: Well, we have stated our position on Hogenakkal project, you know. The Tamil Nadu government has said it is going to be a drinking water proposition.

Karan Thapar: But you don’t want them to go ahead and they are going ahead – that’s the problem.

S M Krishna: And it will only matter if it accounts for 1.4 tmcft of water.

Karan Thapar: If it’s such a small project, why are you complaining?

S M Krishna: Because the location of the project itself is under dispute – that is the contention.

Karan Thapar: Absolutely. And that is why you’re saying, ‘don’t go ahead until the Karnataka elections are over,’ but Tamil Nadu is insisting on going ahead. And if Tamil Nadu does go ahead, you’ve got a bigger problem. Your allies will be the suffer, and your opponents will get the advantage.

S M Krishna: No, it will be a long way before Tamil Nadu can really take off on the project. There are a number of…

Karan Thapar: So you’re saying that it makes no impact on the current things.

S M Krishna: There are a number of hurdles which the Tamil Nadu government will have to overcome before they start the work.

Karan Thapar: No doubt Mr Krishna, but are you seriously saying to me that the Hogenakkal project will have no impact on voters and on this election in Karnataka?

S M Krishna: The Hogenakkal project – without the Government of Karnataka’s consent – shall not take place.

Karan Thapar: How do you know that? Who said so?

S M Krishna: I’m saying it.

Karan Thapar: But the Central Government hasn’t said it.

S M Krishna: No, it is an inter-state river water dispute.

Karan Thapar: But in 1998, the Central Government gave permission.

S M Krishna: We can always go to the Supreme Court. So, that protection is there for every state.

Karan Thapar: So you’re seriously considering going to the Supreme Court.

S M Krishna: No. If it comes to that, then we have no other alternative.

Karan Thapar: Dr Manmohan Singh and Sonia Gandhi will let you do that?

S M Krishna: To defend Karnataka’s rights and rightful share of water.

Karan Thapar: But will Mrs Gandhi and Dr Manmohan Singh let you do that? You go to the Supreme Court, the DMK will be very upset. The Central Government will suffer.

S M Krishna: No, no, we are not really concerned whether the DMK is going to be upset, or it is going to have an impact on the Central Government; all that we are concerned is how does this project affect Karnataka in terms of water-sharing arrangement in Karnataka and Tamil Nadu.

Karan Thapar: Mr Krishna, you are not concerned how the Central Government is affected by this?

S M Krishna: The Central Government might be affected.

Karan Thapar: Seriously affected! Badly affected!

S M Krishna: But Karnataka has to safeguard itself.

Karan Thapar: And so you’re prepared to go to the Supreme Court, you’re prepared to annoy the DMK and you’re prepared to let the Central Government suffer the consequences?

S M Krishna: No, I’m not speculating and I am not going to answer. This is a hypothetical question, Mr Thapar, but the limited point that I’m trying to make is the state of Karnataka has its own concerns and those concerns will have to be met by Tamil Nadu and that is the reason why I have repeatedly suggested that let a popular government… In two months time we are going to have a popular government in Karnataka. Heavens are not going to fall.

Karan Thapar: See, it’s very reasonable to put it like that with an angelic smile on your face, but you know and I know that Dr Karunanidhi is very unlikely to accept. He wants to get political capital for Tamil Nadu just as you want to defend the interests of Karnataka. He’s pushing, you’re saying ‘hold up!’ There’s an impasse – the person caught in the middle is Dr Manmohan Singh. And now you’re saying to me you are prepared to let Dr Manmohan Singh suffer consequences to defend your interests here?

S M Krishna: I have a lot of confidence in Dr Manmohan Singh’s diplomatic skills. He has negotiated…

Karan Thapar: He needs magic, not diplomatic ones in this situation.

S M Krishna: He has negotiated much more complex issues between allies, between states, and I’m sure that he would be able to find a solution.

Karan Thapar: Sounds as if you’re hoping against hope. So far we’ve talked about the external problems that constitute an obstacle for Congress in Karnataka. Now let’s talk about the internal divisions in your party. You may be smiling but you know that those are the biggest handicap that you’ll go into these elections with. The party is said to have six different factions – maybe seven. They’re all pulling in different directions. The problem is they’re not pulling together. That’s the first problem you face.

S M Krishna: Well, we have a good line-up of leaders in the Congress party.

Karan Thapar: In fact, you probably have too many leaders for safety.

S M Krishna: Well, we have too many and all of them can be accommodated. All of them can be, very respectably, accommodated and then utilised.

Karan Thapar: Well, utilised they may be, but respectfully accommodated can’t be because they all want the top job if the party wins. You can’t have nine Chief Ministers.

S M Krishna: Well, we can’t have nine Chief Ministers, but we need to have one Chief Minister and Congress has mustered the art of selecting Chief Ministers without upsetting the apple-cart.

Karan Thapar: Well, that’s to be seen this time round. To begin with, you’re already losing people. On Wednesday, M Mahadev and C Ramesh resigned from your party, some of their followers have left as well. That’s the beginning of the problem. It’s going to get worse and you know that.

S M Krishna: Well, a couple of individuals leaving the party and many more individuals preferring to join the party. Party is strong, its base and roots are also strong. So Congress will certainly overcome all these odds.

Karan Thapar: You see, it’s not just a couple of individuals leaving, and even if you say the party’s strong, today divisiveness is eating your strength. When you came back the cadres welcomed your return – they saw hope in it. Eight other leaders were jealous – Malik Arjun Harge made no secret of the fact that he wished you’d stayed behind in Mumbai, where he said you belonged. As a result, he put pressure on the Centre to cancel your proposed Belgaum to Bangalore yatra. So, there was no great welcome for you.

S M Krishna: Well, I didn’t expect a great welcome. All that was done was to come back to power to the state and then take up a position which I have always done, at least, listening to the Congress high command. The very people who appointed Mr Kharge as President of Andhra Pradesh Congress have appointed so-and-so as President of the Management and the Campaign.

Karan Thapar: Quite right, but Mr Kharge…

S M Krishna: My job is to bring about co-ordination and I have plunged myself totally in bringing about that co-ordination, and you will be surprised that we shall succeed.

Karan Thapar: Well, those are pious words of hope. Mr Kharge today is sulking and you know that and the worst point is that it’s not just Mr Kharge. You know that you have a serious division in your party, not just between factions – and you have so many factions you can’t even count them – you have an even bigger division between the old Congressman who want the reward for having been loyal, and the new people from the JD(S) who have to be given seats because they can leave you yet again. When it comes to seats and distribution, how you are going to accommodate so many people?

S M Krishna: Well, we’ll certainly work out those details in consultation with all those who have come into the party.

Karan Thapar: That’s a non-answer and you know it!

S M Krishna: We have dealt with such situations earlier and we shall deal with them again.

Karan Thapar: Let me quote The Hindu to you: ‘The party is finding it difficult to accommodate all those who have joined the party and persuade old-timers to work for the victory of the newcomer’, and you know that’s a serious problem.

S M Krishna: The delimitation of constituencies have taken place…

Karan Thapar: And that makes it even worse.

S M Krishna: Let’s not forget that. It means a number of constituencies have undergone a major and marginal changes, as a result of which, we have to make certain internal adjustments, even with reference to those who have been in the Congress party, who have been sitting members of the legislative Congress party. So I think these adjustments will be made.

Karan Thapar: You call them adjustments as if it was the doctor tinkering with little medical sheet. The truth is going to be painful cuts. You’re going to be asking people to sacrifice their career – many people who have served Congress for a long time in favour of people who have come to Congress a month or two ago. You could have a revolt on your hands and you know it. More people would be leaving like Romesh and Mahadev.

S M Krishna: It is not the first time that things like this are…

Karan Thapar: Are you prepared to let them go?

S M Krishna: No, we have Mr Prakash coming in with his nine or 10 followers, apart from the legislators, who are formally…

Karan Thapar: All of them will want a seat and all those seats will be at the cost of Congress interests.

S M Krishna: No, no, you were talking about Mahadev leaving the party. But don’t forget a man like Prakash is also coming into the party, who has a much wider appeal.

Karan Thapar: Let me put it like this: If you’re really so sanguine as you’re trying to suggest, then why has the Congress been asking for elections not to be held till December? Why is the Congress party so distressed that the Election Commission is holding them in May? You know you needed the time. You were hoping the delimitation would give you the excuse for more time, and when the Election Commission refused, you know that you suffered.

S M Krishna: I was one of those who welcomed the elections in the month of May.

Karan Thapar: Rest of the party didn’t, and you know it.

S M Krishna: No, it is a fact that the Pradesh Congress President, Mr Kharge, did suggest to the Election Commission that about 64 lakh voters were deleted from the voters’ list, which was something unheard of.

Karan Thapar: And Mr Moily made the same suggestion and Mr Moily was critical of the Election Commission.

S M Krishna: And so, when such abnormal developments took place, the suggestion was made by the Pradesh Congress President that a foolproof electoral roll must be the base on which the elections should be held and if, in this process, elections have to be put off by a month or two, then the Election Commission should not rule it out.

Karan Thapar: It wasn’t a month or two, there are six months till December. And you may be sounding technical today in your explanation but you know the real reason was you needed more time. You have to patch up the differences in your ranks, you have to overcome the problems you face externally, you need more time desperately.

S M Krishna: Well, yes, every political party needed more time…

Karan Thapar: Not every one! BJP wanted it immediately.

S M Krishna: Well, that’s what they’ve said for outside consumption but we know what’s happening inside.

Karan Thapar: Tell me this: Are you really confident? After all the problems you’ve been through – external, internal, not to mention the rivalry in your ranks – are you really confident Congress is going to win?

S M Krishna: We will be inviting you for the swearing-in ceremony as the Congress Chief Minister in Karnataka in the month of May.

Karan Thapar: When you say, ‘we will be inviting you,’ will it then be S M Krishna’s second swearing-in ceremony?

S M Krishna: Well, one of the Congressmen will be elected leader of the party in accordance with the procedures, with the conventions.

Karan Thapar: Let me ask you a blunt question. Can I invite you to give me an honest answer? Is S M Krishna a candidate for the Chief Minister’s job?

S M Krishna: S M Krishna will act as per the advise of Congress high command, which I have always consciously done.

Karan Thapar: Is S M Krishna hoping that he will be the Chief Minister?

S M Krishna: It is not a question of hope or expectations. The question is what the party wants, what the high command wants and what the people want.

Karan Thapar: If Sonia Gandhi gives it to Kharge, will you be upset?

S M Krishna: Certainly not!

Karan Thapar: You mean that?

S M Krishna: Certainly not!

Karan Thapar: Mr Krishna, a pleasure talking to you on Devil’s Advocate.