Expert view: After Nawaz's deportation, what's next?

UNREST ASSURED: It’s clear that the government will have some explaining to do at the Supreme Court.

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One possibility is that Nawaz lied in his London news conference on Saturday. If not, what explains Saudi Arabia’s continued backing of the 10 year term of exile? There is the strong possibility that the US is now putting pressure on Saudi Arabia to stand by Gen Musharraf. There have been a lot of reports in the Pakistani media of the US brokering a deal between Benazir Bhutto and Gen Musharraf. If these reports are true, Nawaz’s return is a blow to the US’ plans. Apart from Nawaz though, Musharraf’s own party, the Pakistan Muslim League (Q) has been advising Musharraf to allow Nawaz into the country and not deport him.

What’s next in Pakistan?

Musharraf is a man who loves to play to the gallery. He is now looking for the right opportunity to do so. I had the occasion to interview him in detail in September 2000, when he revealed to me first that he wanted to be President. He will not want to go against the Supreme Court or be seen as a martial law dictator. He has come close to imposing an emergency. That possibility remains.

A deal with Benazir Bhutto is reportedly stuck because Musharraf’s party, the PML (Q), led by Chaudhary Shujaat Hussain, has said no to Benazir being allowed to run for a third time as Prime Minister. This is where the Americans come in. Can they swing an arrangement wherein she returns without this guarantee for now and her party backs Gen Musharraf’s re-election plans?

Gen Musharraf hates Benazir Bhutto. I remember his contempt for her very clearly. For him to sup with the devil now, there has to be a very strong reason. That reason could be American pressure. News of that telephone conversation with Condoleeza Rice on the eve of declaring emergency only strengthens this supposition.

Either way, the credibility of Gen Musharraf and Benazir Bhutto have taken a severe beating. Ultimately, it is now clear, the Presidential elections in Pakistan will hold little credibility.

(Dr Vidya Shankar Aiyar is a Senior Editor/Anchor with CNN-IBN)