Government's key to trust vote: MPs abstention

POLITICAL POTBOILER: The Manmohan Singh Government is struggling to get the numbers for the July 21 trust vote.

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New Delhi: As the United Progressive Alliance’s (UPA) campaign managers began to tally the numbers, they are coming to terms with an uncomfortable reality that the ruling alliance does not have the 272 MPs required to win Tuesday’s confidence vote in the 542-member Parliament.

And as small parties are playing hardball, it is becoming clear that if the Government is to survive the vote, it may need some Members of Parliament (MPs) to abstain from voting on Monday.

As July 22 - the date of Vote of Confidence nears - the race to secure the numbers by both the United Progressive Alliance Government and the Opposition is in its home stretch. The Manmohan Singh Government is struggling to get the numbers for the July 21 trust vote.

CNN-IBN Projections

• The UPA has the assured support of 257 MPs, still 14 short of the majority, while there are 19 who are undecided.
• If however, the UPA can get 6-8 MPs to abstain, the halfway mark comes down to 267 giving the ruling alliance some chance.

The BJP however, insists that barring actor Dharmendra who is in a California hospital, all the NDA MPs would be present in Parliament to vote out the government.

Abstentions remain a high risk strategy for the UPA, which is also the reason why they are still hoping that Shibhu Soren's JMM, Ajit Singh's Lok Dal and Deve Gowda's Janata Dal Secular will support the UPA at the last moment.

Meanwhile, it seems that it is going to be a long weekend for Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Sonia Gandhi, as they wait to see whether their great gamble has paid off.