India, Pak: Two nations, same anti-US sentiment

NUCLEAR FAMILY, JOINT CONCERNS: The survey finds supporters of Indo-US deal outnumber opponents.

          

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Rajdeep Sardesai

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Keywords: Poll, Indo-us Nuclear Deal

While Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s statement to the Lok Sabha invited posterity and future generations to judge the value of the Indo-US deal on Civil-Nuclear Energy Cooperation, the timing and the tone of the statement reflected due concern for the judgement of the existing generation.

In this, he shares a dilemma that General Musharraf has faced in the last few years: how far is too far in cosying up to the US? Both Indian and Pakistani rulers have worried about public reaction to their ever-expanding engagements with the US.

The Indian Express-Dawn News-CNN-IBN-CSDS poll quizzed a sample of urban Indians and Pakistanis to get a sense of how they view the US and its role in the region.

The good news for the Prime Minister is that among the urban Indians the supporters of the Indo-US deal clearly outnumber the opponents.

Among the 2,000-plus respondents interviewed in the 20 Indian cities for this survey, there were 20 per cent informed supporters (who had heard about and supported the deal) as against only 10 per cent informed opponents.

Another 12 per cent offered indirect support, for they believe that the government is the best judge of matters to do with foreign policy which do not concern ordinary people.

The PM may have felt outnumbered in the Lok Sabha, but he can take some consolation that outside Parliament– at least in the big cities – the supporters of the deal outnumbered the opponents by three to one.

This is so not just among the supporters of the Congress but also among the BJP supporters. The less educated are no less supportive than the more educated, provided they know about this agreement.

On this evidence, a political campaign against the deal may not hold out much promise in a country where foreign policy issues do not drive political preferences.

But the Prime Minister would be well advised not to read too much into these figures, for these come with many riders:

• Nearly half the urban population had not even heard of an “Indo-US nuclear deal”. Predictably, the less educated were less informed. Greater awareness of the deal and more information about its contents could change the balance.
• These opinions could be very fickle. Indians do not hold very strong or stable views on matters of foreign policy and are largely guided in this respect by the party they happen to support. Thus what appears a favourable opinion could turn unfavourable if the overall political climate turns unfavourable.
• Those who are less favourably disposed towards the Indo-US deal include the Muslims, a community the ruling party is desperately trying to woo.

In any case it may be misleading to see this support for the Indo-US deal as a sign of a change in the Indian attitude to the US. For a long time, the Indian public perception of the US has been marked by distrust as well as envy.