India has much to lose with no N-deal

NUKED DEAL?No N-deal will shut the door on an energy option which was seen as viable and reasonable as oil prices are rising.

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Keywords: 123 Agreement, UPA-Left

New Delhi: The UPA-Left meeting on Tuesday could see the nuclear deal go into coma for some time at least.

That development will shut the door on an energy option which was seen as viable and reasonable at a time of spiraling oil prices. But experts say there are other implications.

• No deal means India cannot import uranium fuel for its nuclear power plants.
• There are international prohibitions on allowing non-NPT countries like India to buy uranium.
• The world's major uranium producers are members of the Nuclear Suppliers Group and will give no concession to India.
• The shortage of uranium is telling on India's nuclear reactors, many of which are operating at 30 per cent capacity.

The Atomic Energy Commission failed to open up new mines in the country to cater to the current shortage. Production in newly commissioned mines could take from three to five years to kick off.

However, there are technological implications too."No country can afford to be isolated and be away from the mainstream of technology development," says nuclear scientist Dr K Santhanam.

The loss could be especially severe in the case of high technology trade in critical areas like space and IT.

It could also impact on India's plans to build an indigenous defence and aerospace industry that necessarily involves transfer of technologies from overseas partners.

These arguments have cut no ice with the Left , which is convinced that the nuclear deal is a device to get India into the US camp, circumscribe its indigenous nuclear programme and strangle its strategic options.

In this scenario arguments that India's own long terms growth will be hit by not signing up on the nuclear deal are dismissed.

"No energy is costlier than no energy," adds Dr Santhanam.

However optimists believe that all is not lost yet and any new government even a Democratic one in the US will not tinker too much with the 123 Agreement, but that is a whole new and uncertain ball game for next year.