Losing the Left worth it for the Government

BREAK AWAY: Left will meet President Patil on Wednesday and ask for a confidence vote in Parliament.

        

Featured Blog

Rajdeep Sardesai

Television, for politicians with a vision

Featured Slideshows

Related Headlines

powered by

• No-clear deal on Prime Minister's nuclear deal
• Parliament to discuss nuclear deal today
• All eyes on UPA for final word on nuclear deal

Keywords: UPA Government, Nuclear Deal

New Delhi: After a year of threats, the most troubled political marriage in India between the Left parties and the UPA Government finally came to an end on Tuesday. Angry that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh announced his Government's intention to go to the IAEA with the Indo-US nuclear deal, the Left parties withdrew support from the Congress-led Government.

The Left parties will meet President Pratibha Patil on Wednesday to formalise the separation and ask for a confidence vote in Parliament, which is likely to take place in the second half of July.

While the numbers may be tilting towards the UPA, none of its floor managers in Parliament can afford to take any chances at this moment and which is why the next few days are likely to see intense bargaining among political parties and a fight for every single MP's vote.

And that brings us to the Question of the Day that was asked on CNN-IBN show Face the Nation: Will the Congress Government be better off without the Left?

The panel of experts comprised of India's most respected newsmen like Editor-in-Chief of Outlook magazine Vinod Mehta, Editor-in-Chief of The Pioneer Chandan Mitra, Editorial Advisor of the Times of India Group Gautam Adhikari and Editor-in-Chief of The Hindu N Ram.

N-deal, worth the trouble?

Vinod Mehta, who has always been critical of the deal, began the debate by speaking on whether the ensuing political drama for the deal was worth it.

“The PM’s latest statements before leaving for the G-8 Summit gave a handle to the Left to withdraw support, it diminished the bargaining powers of the Congress managers who were still trying to stitch up support and thirdly it diminished the PM’s own clout when he was talking to the G-8 leaders without a Government. And fourth, it made Pranab Mukherjee look very silly. This support (Samajwadi Party) for the Congress is unstitched support. And in future we may have a Vajpayee like situation where the Congress loses by a very narrow vote,” Mehta argued.

Mehta also said that the PM set in motion a lot of things that he could have done without because a momentum of comprise with the Left was being built up.

However, Gautam Adhikari disagreed with Mehta and said, “There was no scope for compromise. Both the Congress and the Left had made their ideas very clear.”

Adhikari added, “I think that the PM losing the Left regardless of the deal is worth it because the Left was never really part of the Government. All along their support came from the outside. So in a sense it was always a minority Government, which was supported from the outside. The right approach at the moment is to seek a confidence vote. And if all goes well for the Government and they can pull it off then there will not be another confidence vote for the next six months. So if Congress gets all this right then it is a masterstroke.”

Chandan Mitra, who has often said that Manmohan Singh is an apolitical PM and that he does not understand political management, said he did not agree with Adhikari.

“At a time when the inflation is soaring and expected to soar even more along with other kinds of anxieties, the PM has jumped from the frying pan into the fire with the kind of alliances that he is being compelled to stitch up. And that too for a deal which a large number of people feel is extremely dubious. So even if the Congress had to gain something out of it, all this should have been done long time back when the PM dared the Left for the first time. Right now we don’t even know whether the deal will go through or not. So was it worth sacrificing the Government for it?” Mitra said.

The Government may not get the NSG waiver and on the other hand it has put itself in the hands of the Samajwadi Party. So is it a win-win or a lose-lose situation?

“The SP in a way is no different from the Left. The Left was opposing every move of the Government so it was not part of the support mechanism that the Government required. If SP has its own demands then let it negotiate with the Congress,” Adhikari said.

“If the deal is passed by the IAEA, which it most likely will, it has to go to the NSG. Now that will require a couple of months of negotiation. Major countries like the US, UK, France, Russia and now reportedly China are supporting it then it should be through. And after that it is up to the US to get it passed by the Congress. And if they don’t do it then India is free to trade with all other countries,” Adhikari explained.

Meanwhile, N Ram, who had recently said that the nuclear deal is dead, said that one still has to wait and watch the present political situation.

“This is propaganda for the deal. We have to wait and see what happens because much more is at stake than what the PM has said. They are refusing to show the safeguards agreement,” Ram said.

He added, “I pity the PM because he has made a huge blunder and compromised the relationship without any forethought. The cost that he is going to pay for this present arrangement is going to be extremely high.”

But has the loss of the Left support for the UPA brought in a lot of uncertainties?

Adhikari explained, “Every election since 1989 has been all about coalition politics. There are basically two coalitions - NDA and the UPA. So let me put it the other way round - after the election, who will the Left go with? So it is as much a problem for the Left as it is for the Congress. Secondly, by not signing the deal and bringing India out of the nuclear core is as good as India spoiling its relations with the rest of the world. So I think the Left will also see reason in due course of time.”

But who is bigger loser at the end of this battle - Karat or Manmohan Singh?

“Whether it is a masterstroke by the PM or a great blunder by Karat, we can always discuss the politics of the deal but if we stand back a little and think what the people of this country are thinking then we should ask, are they impressed with the nuclear deal?” Mehta asked.

He further said, “What is the number one problem of the people of this country? How much time, energy and resources are being spent by this Government to save the deal. In electoral terms it means very little and I am surprised how a party like the Congress not see this. The Congress is here for power and not for some great post-Cold war architectural design.”

Agreeing with Mehta, Mitra said, “It is very true that the Congress has handled the whole thing in a politically naive manner.”

And concluding the debate, N Ram said, “The present political developments are bad for the Congress and the BJP will be the major gainer out of this episode.”

Results of the SMS poll: Will the Congress Government be better off without the Left?

Yes - 80 per cent

No - 20 per cent