Maya's march to Delhi: But is she PM material?

EYE ON DELHI: Mayawati's ulitmate, long-term aim is to capture power in New Delhi.

          

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Rajdeep Sardesai

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She's 52 and is talking big. After an absolute majority in Uttar Pradesh, there seems to be no stopping Bahujan Samaj Party supremo Mayawati who celebrated her birthday in her trademark lavish style in Delhi on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, her party’s vote share has risen in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh and if it crosses 50 seats in the 2009 General Elections, Mayawati could become far bigger than just the chief minister of UP.

CNN-IBN debated if Mayawati is a possible contender for the Prime Miniter’s post on Face the Nation. The show moderated by Sagarika Ghose had on the panel President, National justice party Udit Raj; social activist Kancha Ilaiah; JNU professor Sudha Pai and senior journalist and BJP member Sheshadri Chari.

Mayawati and her party’s ambitions have never been a secret. While BSP’s founding father Kanshi Ram always maintained that for the party, the ultimate aim was to capture power in Delhi, Mayawati has never made a secret of her long-term aim. In fact, when US Magazine Newsweek ranked her among the top eight women leaders last year, this is what Mayawati said in her article: Our aim now is to replicate the winning formula in other states and prepare for the bigger struggle to capture power in New Delhi.

Hypothetically speaking, if the BSP manages to get at least 50 seats in the 2009 Elections, she will be in the same position as the Left is today.

Considering her ambition and her show in UP elections, this could be a giant leap. However, Chari did not agree. “It’s early to say. Every successful politician nurtures the ambition of becoming a PM. There is another political woman from the south who has the same dream and has said it. But dream doesn’t mean everything,” he said.

Maya's maya: How long will it last?

While Chari admitted the BJP had acknowledged Maywati’s might, her divisive politics to do her in. “She shouldn’t divide the society into Dalits and non-Dalits,” he said.

Sudha Pai, too, seemed skeptical of Maya’s reach and said it was too early to comment on her national-level popularity. “I don’t think it’s that simple. In UP, we have to wait and see if the coalition (Dalit-Brahmin) will last. It depends on whether she can put into practice the inclusive developmental agenda and in doing so, can she continue to get the support of Dalits,” Pai said.

She also pointed out a crucial concern in present-day UP - Is there really a social consensus between Dalits and Brahmins in UP? “Mayawati’s first step should be maintaining that coalition before moving on to other states,” she said, adding, “One must realise all states in India have different of caste equations and different levels of political developments so the same theory doesn’t apply to all.”

Many political observers and a section in the media has also likened Mayawati to Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi. The premise: While both leaders have been successful in their respective states, none has been able to replicate the success in other states.

Chari rubbished the argument and said it was way too early to make such statements. “It’s not the question of success. Modi has proved himself in the past many years, Mayawati is yet to,” he said.

Kancha Illaiah explained the psychology behind Mayawati’s politics. “Her national ambitions are rooted in her politics. She is trying to organise Dalits arcoss the country and rope in other castes into that,” he said. Illaiah also said her alliance with the Brahmins was a tactical move but dismissed she was a divisive politician. “Is Mayawati more divisive or harmful than BJP?” he questioned.

Dalit PM: Has the time come?

The debate then moved to whether India needed a Dalit Prime Minister. Illaiah strongly advocated for it and said it was only fair that she was creating a “hope” for the Dalits - the weakest section of Indian society. “That’s the hope she has to create and that’s fair enough in politics,” he said.

Udit Raj of the Justice Party made an interesting point. “If she is expanding her base, Congress and SP are responsible for expansion it,” he said.

Chari, however, maintained the credit of having made Dalits figures of reckoning in Indian politics. But he also pointed out what could be a fatal flow for BSP. “We’ve had some very towering Dalit leaders. The issue is BSP made its political debut saying: tilak, tarazoo aur talwar, inko maaro joote chaar. Only when they became inclusive did they include the mainstream communities into it. It was only then that their support base increased. Now the question is if she can increase her support base or will she remain an exclusive Dalit leader,” Chari said.

Pai agreed with Chari and said it was a tough ask for Maya. “What if BJP and Congress recover, the upper class might just go back to them. Dalits may not like it,” she said.

Is Mayawati a "true" Dalit leader or an opportunist?

Illaiah jumped to Mayawati’s defence and said BSP was opportunist in the sense that it was giving an opportunity of representation to Dalits. “All castes should get representation according to population levels. But Dalits must be in the league. Mayawati has done just that,” he said.

But Pai did not agree. She explained the politics that goes behind the making of a national leader. “In states like Himachal, BSP’s percentage has gone up but it has also gone down in states like Punjab and Haryana. There are certain problems in spreading beyond UP. In the Hindi heartland, Cong is not on a decline except in UP and Bihar. In MP, Rajasthan - where two-party system is still prevalent - it’s still there along with the BJP. Many OBCs wouldn’t want Dalits to come up and so they support Congress. South of Vindhyas, there’s a different kind of problem. Maharashtra will be very harsh to her despite the lack of political leadership there. In Tamil Nadu, it’s a very different kind of Dalit politics with Periyar in background. It’s going to be tough for her to create a pan-Indian identity,” she pointed out.

If Deve Gowda can, why not Maya?

This argument drew sharpest of responses from the panelists. Chari said the comparison was silly as Gowda and even I K Gujral became PM in certain circumstances. “To become a PM, you need a political party and a support base, you to have vision and you need to be a team leader. Has Mayawati been able to project a vision and convince people?”

Illaiah retored sharply and said BJP, too, had no vision. ”Is there a vision with Advani? Was there one with Vajpayee? There was no vision with Ambedkar or Kanshi Ram either. So what vision is Mr Chari taking about?” he questioned.

End of the debate, while Chari and Pai maintained Mayawati needed to have impressive kind of numbers and acceptability in to run a national-level coaltion, Illaiah said she was a “different” leader. “She is a radical woman with short hair who never wears sari. Women politicians in the Left or even in the Right look, so-to-say, typically Indian. So you can’t understand a person based on your understanding of culture. She is a different kind of leader and will be accepted like that,” Illaiah concluded.

Results of the SMS/Web poll:

Question: Is Mayawati India’s future prime minister

Yes: 35 per cent

No: 65 per cent