Modi victory may not get BJP cheering

PARTY POOPER: Politicians and academics debated whether Modi's victory could create dissidence in BJP.

                  

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An Indian Express-CNN-IBN-Divya Bhaskar poll suggests that the BJP will win between 92-100 seats in the Gujarat elections and secure a majority in the Assembly.

The Congress is expected to improve its tally from 51 in the last elections to 77-85 this time but it will fall short of challenging the BJP.

The election was perceived to be a referendum on Modi, and it appears he has won the test. Modi is the most popular political leader in the state and overall his government is perceived positively.

How will the outcome of the Gujarat polls influence politics at the Centre? Will Modi's victory strengthen the BJP or will it create more dissidence in the party? Rajeep Sardesai, CNN-IBN’s Editor-in-Chief, asked this to politicians, academics and journalists.

The guests on the show were: Yogendra Yadav, political analyst with the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), Congress leader M Veerappa Moily, Gujarat BJP leader Jay Narayan Vyas, rebel BJP leader Gordhan Zadaphiya, journalist and Rajya Sabha MP Chandan Mitra, and Vandita Mishra, senior editor with The Indian Express

The personality

As many as 26 percent respondents went by the candidate's work while casting their vote, the post-poll survey found. As many as 24 percent respondents went by a party's leadership and just 7 percent went by caste. By those standards, Modi had a clear advantage.

Yadav, whose team at the CSDS conducted the survey, said Modi wanted this election to be a plebiscite on him and he was partially successful in that. "To the extent personality matters, the BJP had a clear advantage. Modi was way ahead of any political leader in terms of popularity," he said.

Zadaphiya, who was once Modi's confidante, was not impressed. "Individual popularity doesn't matter to a party. Chandrababu Naidu too had a popularity rating of 40-45 percent but the results in Andhra Pradesh were something else," said Zadaphiya.

Is the BJP comfortable with Modi's popularity? Has Modi become bigger than the party? "It's Modi who led the BJP but it’s the party which fights elections. It's like India being led by Mahendra Singh Dhoni in cricket—saying the BJP has become Narendra Janta Party is taking things too far," said Vyas.

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