'Musharraf is in trouble, won't survive September'

CAUGHT IN KHAN-TROVERSY: Imran Khan predicts doom for Musharraf, clears air on his 'illegitimate' child.

      

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Karan Thapar: Hello and welcome to Devil’s Advocate. After last weekend’s all-party Opposition meeting of Pakistani parties in London, are Pakistani politicians in a better condition to take on General Musharraf? That’s the key issue I shall explore today with the President of the Tehreek-e-Insaf the famous cricketer Imran Khan. Your all-party meeting generated a lot of thunder but what leads you to believe that General Musharraf cares at all about what Pakistani Opposition leaders says or do.

Imran Khan: Well, until now he was justified in not worrying too much about the Opposition because, for the Opposition, there was no chance of getting together. They found excuses to divide themselves.

Karan Thapar: But you haven’t got together. Benazir Bhutto the single most credible Opposition leader boycotted your meeting and Fazlur Khan, who is an ally of the General, was there sitting amongst you almost like a fifth columnist so what sort of Opposition grouping was this?

Imran Khan: It’s true that Benazir is not part of it. But at least there is an Opposition which public will identify as a genuine Opposition.

Karan Thapar: Without the PPP how credible is it.

Imran Khan: It does not matter because at the moment the problem with the Opposition was and which is why we couldn’t mobilise the public was because the public didn’t know whether the Opposition was genuine or not.

Karan Thapar: But even now they don’t because Benazir Bhutto, and I keep saying she is the single biggest Opposition leader, is said to be talking to General Musharraf the Americans are pushing for some sort of deal and you can’t prevent it happening.

Imran Khan: But it does not matter if Benazir is not part of it. At least there is a genuine Opposition, which people will identify will do no deal with Musharraf and that’s what’s happened and I think that’s the positive that’s happened.

Karan Thapar: You say it’s a genuine Opposition but I put to you that number one, the biggest element of it is missing and secondly you are fractured. I will tell you why – if the General were to go ahead and hold elections to begin with for the national assembly after dissolving the existing one would you participate or would you boycott and can you be united in either.

Imran Khan: Let me say one thing - the problem General Musharraf faces is that the moment a genuine Opposition goes into a movement in the streets that’s where his problem were until now this hasn’t happened. The Opposition has already decided the venue of the first rally which going to happen on the 9th and the 2nd on the 14th. And so once the Opposition goes into the public that’s where Musharraf’s problems start.

Karan Thapar: But that’s the problem. Once it goes into some sort of rally that is effective, but for eight years you have challenged General Musharraf and you failed. Iftikhar Chaudhry, who is not a politician, has succeeded but you failed and the second Iftikhar Chaudhry’s challenge fizzles out because the Supreme Court gives a verdict in his favour and takes his team out of his campaign. You people will be back where you are – ineffective, divided and some of you still talking to General Musharraf so I come back why should he worry about grand all party meetings.

Imran Khan: Actually Musharraf is in lot of trouble now. Whatever happens in the Supreme Court - if the chief justice goes against him the lawyers will take to the streets joined by the Opposition.

Karan Thapar: But if it goes in the favour of the chief justice, it will defuse the situation, takes the team out of the Iftikhar Chaudhry campaign and the General would have been let off a problem of his own making.

Imran Khan: But then it goes to the Supreme Court and then a series of constitutional petitions…

Karan Thapar: Isn’t that your hope rather than a real expectation?

Imran Khan: No, I think its inevitable now. Because the moment the Opposition and the lawyers perceive the Supreme Court to be independent the petitions will go in the Supreme Court, no General can survive in a democracy.

Karan Thapar: So you are saying if General Musharraf loses the Iftikhar Chaudhry verdict there will be greater problems for him because in fact there will then be petitions moved in Supreme Court against the very position that General Musharraf occupies. His Presidency will be under threat.

Imran Khan: I mean simply that Constitution cannot allow a General sitting on top and running the country so…

Karan Thapar: But the very same Supreme Court that you are relying on is the one that has validated the legal framework. Up till now the supreme court of Pakistan whenever it had a choice between democracy and legitimizing dictatorship has always legitimized dictatorship.

Imran Khan: Absolutely, and this is why for the first time in our history we will have a supreme court who will derive its power from the public rather than the GHQ. That’s why the General is in trouble.

Karan Thapar: You have no reason to believe in it but you hope that it will happen.

Imran Khan: If the public had not stood by the chief justice he would have been history in two weeks. The fact that the chief justice today standing there with the whole lawyer movement and the judges scared now to give a verdict against the chief justice means that the chief justice is there with the power of the people.

Karan Thapar: What about something else - I can accept that the handling of the chief justice case over the last four months has eroded the standing of General Musharraf but in the last two weeks he has won wide spread praise from the people of Pakistan for his handling his firmness in resolving the Lal Masjid issue. Surely his fortunes are on the rise.

Imran Khan: Well three reasons, one is the supreme court, second the Opposition now finally decided to come in the field which hasn’t so far and thirdly the blood bath in Lal Masjid at the end - you cannot imagine the damages done General Musharraf. It’s gone against him its an albatross. It’s not going to leave him.

Karan Thapar: You say it has gone against him but the Pakistani papers aren’t saying that and in a sense they mold public opinion. The Pakistani papers are saying that he has got praise for his resolve, he has got praise for taking firm action and the ordinary man as interviewed on television is applauding this.

Imran Khan: This is not true. What happened was that everyone in Pakistan the public opinion was against the clerics. I mean everyone thought what they were doing was wrong. But there were lot of question marks about the way this was being handled. But eventually I think there was a time when the move was quite popular when one of the clerics was caught in a burkha but after the blood bath I think it’s very much against him.

Karan Thapar: All right then let me flipside. You insist that the Opposition is united despite the fact that Benazir is not part with you, you insist that General Musharraf is week despite the fact that public opinion is that he shown great determination resolving the issue, let me then flip and ask you a slightly different question. How do you see General Musharraf’s future today?

Imran Khan: I think the General is not going to survive September.

Karan Thapar: Politically or physically?

Imran Khan: He won’t be in power by the end of September.

Karan Thapar: What will happen will he be removed?

Imran Khan: I just think that too many crisis coming ahead. You must remember that eventually he has to have him self re-endorse by the same assembly again.

Karan Thapar: But he said he will do it between September 15th and October 15th?

Imran Khan: But whatever he has to do has to be done before September. Now this is the problem we faces. If there is an independent chief justice sitting there, there is no way he is going to allow him to go through. I mean an Assembly whose term last one term cannot elect its president for two terms.

Karan Thapar: So you are saying that an independent supreme court with an independent chief justice particularly if Iftikhar Chaudhry restored will not allow him to seek a second mandate as president from the existing assembly.

Imran Khan: No independent Supreme Court would allow that.

Karan Thapar: You know that the President has in fact committed himself to seeking a mandate from the existing assembly. You are saying that the Supreme Court will disallow him.

Imran Khan: There is no way the Supreme Court, if it is independent, will allow him. It’s unconstitutional.

Karan Thapar: What if the General does something else. Suppose the General were to call early elections by dissolving the national assembly and some or all of the provincial assembly then in those circumstances he would have a new body that would be perfectly capable of re-electing him. How then do you say he will collapse before September?

Imran Khan: But he will be in a bigger mess if he calls for elections now with the public opinion against him. With the genuine Opposition in the field there is no way he is going to get those party re-elected again. I mean he is in a mess either way.

Karan Thapar: So you are saying he is a loser if he tries to hold presidential elections first because the Supreme Court will strike them down, they won’t permit them to be held twice by the same assembly and you are saying he cant hold elections genuinely for the assembly because he wont win them.

Imran Khan: And except people’s party all the Opposition will go out of the assembly anyway if he tries to have them himself re-elected. So that will become meaningless.

Karan Thapar: What about the General standing with the Army that is his real constituency and up till now the core commanders and army officers are totally loyal to general Musharraf. So when you say he will be out of power by September what about the army. There are going to keep him there.

Imran Khan: The generals were loyal to Ayub Khan, they were loyal to Zia-ul-Haq, to Yahya Khan but eventually the Generals removed all three dictators before.