'Musharraf's survival will depend on army chief'

REGARDING OUR NEIGHBOUR: M K Narayanan says the army will remain the power centre in Pakistan.

        

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National Security Advisor M K Narayanan says new Pak army chief won’t try “adventurist” action against India.

How does the Government regard the situation in Pakistan and what might be the implications for India? Those are the issues that Karan Thapar raised with National Security Advisor M K Narayanan on Devil’s Advocate.

Karan Thapar: Mr Narayanan, let me start with the obvious question. How do you view Pervez Musharraf today?

M K Narayanan: I think as of now, he is an elected President but the legitimacy of his presidency will probably have to be declared only after the Pakistan Parliament approves of it with a two-third majority. As things stand right now, it does seem possible that he would be elected with that majority. If that happens and he is the legitimate President of Pakistan, I think we’ll do business with him. We’ve done business with him in the past, and I think we will continue to do business with him.

Karan Thapar: So, he remains in your eyes, a credible interlocutor for India?

M K Narayanan: Yes, by and large, he remains a credible interlocutor for India to an extent because we will do business, as I said with, whoever has the stamp of approval in Pakistan.

Karan Thapar: Now that he has retired as the Army Chief, how much of his power and influence has he lost with his uniform?

M K Narayanan: That’s a difficult question to answer because, first and foremost, if you accept that the army is the arbiter of destiny in Pakistan, whoever doffs his uniform necessarily loses a certain amount of his sheen. However, what he has now is the chief of army who is a close comrade of President Musharraf. The chief of army is well acknowledged to be a professional soldier and it is therefore likely that the relationship between the civilian President and the military chief would remain cordial.

How long—is a matter which could remain for all time, but let’s look at the entire scenario: how does a civilian President play out in Pakistan where the army is the most dominant force? I think this is something that the people really have to look at closely. Next, you’re going to have possibly a new Prime Minister of Pakistan. Who that person is going to be is still in the realm of speculation. Therefore you’re going to have three centres of authority or power — a civilian President, who was at one time the President and Army Chief, the current Army Chief and a civilian Prime Minister. Therefore, you have three elements now as against one single unified element in the past. Quite clearly this is going to make a difference to the way it matters our.....

Karan Thapar: Are you also going to suggest that adjusting to a triumvirate, from a previous position where he was the omnipotent power of the country, might be a difficult transition for Musharraf?