N-deal boosts, inflation pulls down PM's rating

WHAT'S THE DEAL? Different age groups showed a different attitude towards the nuclear deal.

                  

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New Delhi: As the Manmohan Singh government faces a battle for survival in Parliament, Network18-CSDS went to the people across urban India to get a sense of where they stand on the issue of Indo-US nuclear deal.

In CNN-IBN’s Weekend Edition, Editor-in-Chief Rajdeep Sardesai analyses an exclusive opinion poll on the mood of the nation along with Congress MP Sachin Pilot, BJP MP Manvendra Singh, Head-Economic Cell of CPI-M Prasenjit Bose, National Conference President and MP Omar Abdullah, and CSDS’ Political Analyst Yogendra Yadav.

The Network18-CSDS poll is an all-urban survey and has been conducted in 96 locations spread across 12 cities of Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Gujarat, Maharashtra, West Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Uttar Pradesh and Delhi. It has a sample size is 1,520.

The fieldwork for the survey was conducted between July 12 and 15 using a standard-structured questionnaire, which was translated in local languages. The locations were selected randomly and the respondents were selected from the latest electoral rolls using random sampling technique.

The first big question: What is the level of awareness about recent developments on the political front?

While 28 per cent of the people have no idea that the Left and the Congress have separated owing to differences over the Indo-US nuclear deal, 72 per cent know about it.

On the other had 31 per cent have no idea what the Indo-US nuclear deal is about, 69 per cent knew about it and 34 per cent people are in favour of the deal now, as compared to 27 per cent about 10 months ago. Just 13 per cent people say they are against the deal, which is less than the 17 per cent who said they opposed it in September 2007.

While 21 per cent feel that a decision on the nuclear deal is best left to the government, which is the same as September 2007 and 32 per cent have no opinion on the issue.

Different age groups showed a different attitude towards the deal. Among the 18 to 25 year age group, 47 per cent were for the deal and only 10 per cent were against it. Fifty six per cent graduates want the deal with only 17 per cent opposing it. A relatively less 22 per cent Muslims are for it while 18 per cent are against it and rest have no opinion. Twenty-four per cent elderly people also showed enthusiasm for the deal and 16 per cent were against it

Congress MP Sachin Pilot seemed happy with the findings and said, “I think we have know it all along (that most people support the deal) I am not all surprised by the findings. People in India know we are an energy deficient country and this nuclear deal with US is a good thing for the country.”

BJP MP Manvendra Singh was of the view that the majority still doesn’t support the nuclear deal.

“No party can depend on its election prospects on one section of society. We look at India as whole and 34 per cent in favour of the deal is not a majority,” Manvendra said.

Yadav explained that 36 per cent of people who plan to vote for NDA (of which the BJP is one of the constituents) favour the deal and 16 per cent oppose it. But all Left voters oppose the deal.

Pilot said, “The only reason BJP is against the deal is because they are not doing it. The NDA government was agreeing for a lot less at that time but today because of political compulsions and just for opposing the government it is opposing the deal.”

CPI-M leader Prasenjit Bose said that such polls tend to have an urban upper middle class bias.

“It is a complicated issue and a large section of the country cannot understand it. And becoming a strategic ally of the US is something that a majority of the people are against.” Bose said.

Pilot, however, maintained that the deal is issue that will affect rural India more as it lacks electricity.

Whether the deal was against Muslims?

Yes: 15 per cent

No: 43 per cent

No opinion: 42 per cent

Implications of the nuclear deal?

Will improve India's standing in the world: 45 per cent

A threat to national security: 23 per cent

No opinion: 32 per cent

National Conference President and MP Omar Abdullah categorically ruled out that the deal was anti-Muslim.

“No the deal is not being seen as anti-Muslim in any quarters. The fears are not about the deal but what closer relations with US will have on India's relation with the Muslim world. Will a closer relationship with US interfere in the flexibility of our own policy? That is a concern. There is great degree of skepticism particularly under George W Bush. You won't find many takers for a close relation with US at the cost of relations with Muslim countries,” Omar said.

“The Left has been against the deal from the very beginning and Comrade MK Pandhe's statement (that Samajwadi Party will lose Muslim votes) was a one off one. The party has clarified on it. This deal is against the interest of the people of the country irrespective of Hindu, Muslim, Sikh or Christian. And within the Muslims there is skepticism that with US and Israel this government just like the previous NDA government is moving closer to the war on terror,” Bose said.

“BJP sees the deal as not in India's interest. The NDA government negotiated with the US on various things and did not agree on nuclear aspects of it and sidestepped the issue to have a space agreement, which is far more agreeable, far more beneficial to the country,” Manvendra said.

Was the Left justified in pulling out support to the UPA government?

Justified: 35 per cent

Not justified: 28 per cent

Among Muslims:

Justified: 50 per cent

Not justified: 24 per cent

Among Left supporters”

Justified: 59 per cent

Not justified: 10 per cent

Rest had no opinion.

Was the Congress justified in risking its government for the deal?

Justified: 42 per cent

Not justified: 22 per cent

No opinion: 36 per cent

Is the SP-Congress alliance an opportunistic one?

Opportunistic: 47 per cent

In national interest: 19 per cent

No opinion: 34 per cent

What do people think of the BJP's stand and their opposition to the deal?

BJP opposed the deal only for the sake of opposition: 47 per cent

BJP opposed the deal because of its concerns for national security: 21 per cent

No opinion: 32 per cent

Pilot clarified that SP supporting the Congress was not a new development.

“SP gave support to the UPA in 2004. The meeting with the President was a reaffirmation of that support. And if MPs across political parties are supporting it, there is nothing wrong in that,” he said.

Manvendra said that the BJP has been opposing the deal, as it is not a fair one.

“If as a principal opposition party we find there is something wrong in the deal, we have to air it. I have two fears. One you cannot secure your energy needs on imported reactors and fuel. It is an oxymoron. And by going along with the deal you are forfeiting certain strategic space, which has taken decades to develop and cannot be recovered once it is forfeited,” The BJP leader said.

When Bose pointed that the poll showed a majority backed Left withdrawing support to the UPA, Yadav explained, “People are detaching the two things. Friendship with US is fine but not joining the US camp. There is deep unease on that.”

Bose asked Pilot why has Iran gas pipeline not happened and if the government voted against Iran in the IAEA under pressure.

Pilot rejected the charge and said, “We voted against Iran in the IAEA not due to US pressure but because we did not want it to have nuclear weapons. India and US are two large democracies and there is no harm in sharing a relationship with it or for that matter China or Russia.”

“It is an unjustified and most clichéd statement. The Left wants the UPA to follow the Common Minimum Programme. The Common Minimum Programme says multi-polar world,” Bose replied when asked if the Left was still in the cold war era.

Pilot challenged the Left saying, “India's footprint has increased and my Left friends should visit China and see what its Communist government is doing.”

“We have nothing against the nuclear deal. In its totality it is deal that is beneficial for the country. This deal opens doors not just to the US but each country of the Nuclear Suppliers Group. Nobody is forcing us to buy reactors or uranium from America. We can choose any NSG country to source our requirements. So why are we looking from a narrow prism of strategic relations with the US. This deal will allow us strategic relations with many countries,” Omar said.

Rajdeep pointed that inflation ranked high on peoples' agenda and public opinion at large is that the Prime Minister should have focused more on controlling inflation rather than investing his energies in the nuclear deal.

Prime Minister's prime focus should be inflation: 62 per cent

Prime Minister's prime focus should be the nuclear deal: 18 per cent

No opinion: 20 per cent

How was the government performing on the issue of price rise?

Government is doing its best: 26 per cent

Government has proved incompetent: 57 per cent

No opinion: 17 per cent

Reacting to the poll Pilot said, “People understand that the integrity the Prime Minister has and they also understand the endeavour the government has made. The Prime Minister himself made attempts to curb inflation. Some of these circumstances are outside the control of the country. Given the circumstances the government has done its best in terms of fiscal and monetary steps to curb inflation. The people have and opinion and they are justified in having it.”

“It hurts your pocket and it hurts your stomach everyday. It just defies logic that somebody would sacrifice the government and not have the same energy, the same devotion towards inflation. How can you be so devoted to the nuclear deal and not be half as devoted to inflation? It just defies political wisdom,” Manvendra said.

Bose agreed with the poll findings and Manvendra. “It is precisely what we said in our letter to President Pratibha Patil. It is the wrong economics of the prime minister, which is responsible for inflation,” he said.

Yadav explained, “Tragedy of Congress could be it is doing well on something that may not matter much and it is doing very badly on things that matter most. We are not US where elections are fought on foreign policy no matter what happens on July 22. In India elections are fought on local and domestic issues.”

Pilot agreed that a high inflation was not good for the country.

“Inflation is a cause of worry for everyone. The government is very, very concerned. Responsibility of controlling inflation lies not just with the Central government but also with the state government,” Pilot said.

Manvendra said, “There is a new term food price inflation and if you look at its rise in the last year and half it has been astronomical.”

Who do people trust more for protecting national interest - Manmohan Singh or Prakash Karat?

Manmohan Singh: 56 per cent

Prakash Karat: 12 per cent

No opinion: 32 per cent

How many people favour an early poll?

In favour of immediate polls: 23 per cent

Polls should be held only after the current term of the Government ends: 52 per cent

No opinion: 25 per cent

Bose said that despite what the poll results show even youngster are not in favour of the nuclear deal.

“Young India is not only the upward mobile and what you call Gen Next. Most of it lives in villages and slums. Young India is also aware of the fact that this deal is against the country,’ he said.

Rajdeep said that polls also showed that Sonia Gandhi is seen leading LK Advani and Manmohan Singh is seen emerging as a tough leader.

Manvendra rubbished the finding. “I think he is seen is as a cowboy. We don't think he is good. Atal Bihari Vajpayee wouldn't have done the deal. I am convinced of it,” he said.

“Prime Minister has himself said this government is not a one-issue government. I think after waiving loans of Rs 70,000 crore, starting NREGA all over the country here is an opportunity that has come to India with the IAEA and NSG and the Prime Minister has gone out and said that this what the future demands and I am going to do it,” Pilot explained.

Yadav said that Sonia is way ahead of Advani. She gets 49 per cent vote while Advani gets the support of only 26 per cent of the respondents. He explained that politically it could be very important but also added that Sonia’s lead over Advani is not reflected on the popularity of the UPA.

“The Left has taken a principled position which will be appreciated by the people. Elections will show if Manmohan Singh is right or whether Prakash Karat is right,” Bose said.

Manvendra said that the BJP would fight the elections of the issue of price rise.

“For us the biggest issue will be the bread and butter issue that affect people's daily life. It will be mismanagement of inflationary trends over the last few months. The government is making the nuclear deal an election issue. We will address it but our focus will remain inflation and its pinch,” he said.

“There is no dilemma. Dr Manmohan Singh is the Prime Minister of the UPA. In the last four years spending on social sectors have been phenomenal. Elections in India are fought on various local and state issues. In the elections people are going to endorse the policies of the UPA and with Manmohan Singh as the Prime Minister India is surging forward,” Pilot said.

Yadav concluded by saying that even though the UPA Government has been able to isolate the nuclear deal and create a somewhat favourable climate for it but it has not gained anything for itself.