Numbers still not in UPA's favour as trust vote nears

A TIGHT RACE: There has been a big blow to SP and UPA's attempts to get the numbers.

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Keywords: Akali Dal, JMM

New Delhi: With just over 48 hours to go for the crucial Vote of Confidence, it has all the makings of a nail biting finish.

There has been a big blow to the Samajwadi Party and the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) Government's attempts to get the numbers on their side.

So how do the numbers add up ahead of the big vote?

The big picture

There are 257 Members of Parliament (MPs) for the UPA Government as of now, 265 are against it and 19 MPs are still undecided. So the Government needs 14 of the 19 undecided to survive.

Or else it needs six to eight MPs to abstain during the Vote of Confidence motion so that the halfway mark comes down to somewhere around 267.

Biggest worry

First, of the 39 Samajwadi MPs, five have rebelled.

Second worry

Second worry for the government is will Shibu Soren, Ajit Singh, Omar Abdullah and HD Deve Gowda remain non-committal till the last moment?

Third worry

The third worry for UPA is will Congress MPs in states like Gujarat and Karnataka be vulnerable to poaching?

However, all is not well in the opposition camp too. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is also dealing with abstention and rebellion.

First worry for BJP

First, will some BJP MPs abstain from voting?

Second worry

Will the Shiv Sena and Akalis stay united on voting day?

Third worry

Third worry for the BJP is will regional parties like Jharkhand Mukti Morcha and Deve Gowda's Janata Dal (Secular) be ready to be on the same side as the BJP?