Mayawati set to get 160 seats in UP

New Delhi: Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP) leader Mayawati has reasons to smile as the long-drawn polling in Uttar Pradesh finally comes to an end.

Widely seen as the front-runner right from the beginning, she managed to finish the race on a high note in the eastern part of the state.

The Indian Express-CNN-IBN–CSDS post poll survey (supplemented by an exit poll in the last phase) shows that the BSP has finished this race about 4 points ahead of its nearest rival, the Samajwadi Party (SP).

The survey estimates that the BSP’s overall vote share will be about 29 per cent, while the SP and the BJP are likely to finish at 25 and 22 per cent.

This vote share is not enough to secure an absolute majority for the BSP in a state that has not seen any party get majority in the last 15 years. Yet a lead of 4 points could translate into a handsome seats tally.

The survey estimates that the BSP may be able to secure around 160 seats, between 152 and 168 to be precise. The BSP has managed to be among the top two contenders practically all over the state and appears set to dominate Bundelkhand and Western Uttar Pradesh.

If the survey suffers from a serious response bias, if the BSP voters have been less willing to disclose their voting preference, the party could do even better than projected here.

SP comes second

Facing a strong anti-incumbency, the SP appears to have done well to finish second. Though it appeared to be trailing at the third spot in the initial phases, the SP picked up as the battle shifted eastwards.

The survey estimates that the SP may get between 99 and 111 seats, much below its best performance in 2002. The SP’s votes are concentrated in some areas and therefore it could secure more seats that projected from the same share of votes.

For the BJP the findings of the post-poll survey bring disappointment: along with its allies it may finish with merely 80-90 seats. That could leave the BJP alone with its smallest tally since 1989.

The BJP’s votes seem to have fallen only by a couple of points. But that is enough for its seats to drop further, since its votes are evenly spread through the state. The result is that it trails in the third spot in most of the regions of the state and may suffer in terms of seats.

The survey findings will be disappointing for the Congress as well, if it was expecting any dramatic rise in its seats tally. It appears that the Congress has improved its vote share by a couple of points (perhaps more, since surveys tend to under-estimate smaller parties) that can lay the foundation for its possible recovery in the next Lok Sabha elections.

But its seats are unlikely to be very different from its tally of 25 last time. Congress leaders will hope that this small tally can be crucial in government formation, especially if the BSP does as well as the estimate offered here suggest.

And that is the point to remember. These are no more than informed estimates. Forecasting the outcome of the UP assembly elections is one of the toughest jobs for any election analyst. The survey can be reasonably sure of the vote share picture offered here. But translating these into seats in the first-past-the-post system is a very tricky business. There is no substitute for turning on your TV sets on the morning of May 11.

CNN-IBN—Indian Express – CSDS Seat Projection
	Seats won in 2002	Projection 2007
BSP	98	152-168
SP	145	99-111
BJP+	106	80-90
Congress	25	25-33
Others	29	21-27
Note: SP and BJP+ include their allies in 2002 and their current allies in 2007.

CNN-IBN—Indian Express – CSDS Seat Projection
	Vote share 2007	Swing from 2002
BSP	29	+6
SP	25	-1
BJP+	22	- 2
Congress	11	+2
Others	13	-5
Note: SP and BJP+ include their allies in 2002 and their current allies in 2007.

Regions matter again
West	BSP to dominate five cornered contests
Ruhelkhand	SP and BSP neck and neck
Doab	BSP leads BJP and SP in triangular contest
Bundelkhand	BSP way ahead of others
Avadh	BSP vs. SP
East	SP vs. BSP
North East	SP way ahead of BJP and BSP