Himachal Pradesh post-poll survey: BJP, Cong in dead heat
Posted on: 08:38 PM IST Dec 17, 2012
New Delhi: The post-poll survey conducted in Himachal Pradesh by CSDS for CNN-IBN and The Week a few days after the state went to elections shows that the two main parties - ruling BJP and Congress - are involved in a dead heat, with no clarity on who will form the next government in the state. The survey conducted from November 7 to 14 in 32 Assembly constituencies of the state reveals that while the Congress has a slight edge over the BJP in terms of vote percentage, the same cannot be said when it comes to the seats.
The seat forecast done by Dr Rajeeva Karandikar, Director, Chennai Mathematical Institute, shows that both the Congress and the BJP are likely to win identical number of seats in the 68-member Assembly. According to the survey the state will witness a hung Assembly, giving the smaller parties and Independents an important say on who will form the next government.While the Congress is likely to win 29 to 35 seats (the party had won 23 in 2007), the BJP may also end up with a similar tally of 29-35 (the party had won 41 in 2007). Other smaller parties are expected to get 2-6 seats (others had won four, which included three Independents and one by the BSP in 2007).As the state heads for a hung Assembly, the vote percentage shows that Congress gaining two percentage points over its 2007 figures. The party had 39 per cent votes in 2007 which has climbed to 41 in 2012 even as the BJP has slipped from 44 per cent in 2007 to 40. Smaller parties have also gained two percentage points and are likely to poll about 19 per cent of the votes.As the result day arrives, the Congress versus the BJP battle is Himachal Pradesh's closest race in the last three decades. In the Assembly elections since 1982, the winner has maintained at least a five percentage point lead over its rival, but 2012 is too close to call.There seems to be a regional divide too as East Himachal wants the BJP government to go, the western part of the wants it to return back to power. East Himachal consists of the districts of Lahaul Spiti, Kullu, Mandi, Solan, Sirmaur, Shimla and Kinnaur while West Himachal consists of the districts of Chamba, Kangra, Hamirpur, Una, and Bilaspur.But within East and West of the state also there seem to be district level variations with the Congress leading in the East Himachal (34 seats) but a close race is expected in Solan, Sirmaur, and Mandi districts. In West Himachal (34), the BJP leads overall but the Congress is expected to give it a tough fight in Kangra, Chamba, and Una districts.Congress leader Virbhadra Singh is the most preferred choice for the chief minister's post while incumbent Prem Kumar Dhumal and Shanta Kumar are too far behind. While 41 per cent of the voters prefer Virbhadra Singh as the next chief minister, Dhumal has the support of 35 per cent while Shanta Kumar gets the backing of just five per cent.While the satisfaction with the BJP government is high yet it offers no guarantee for re-election because in 2007 too satisfaction with the Congress government performance was also high and yet it was voted out. The main election issues were price rise, condition of roads, corruption, employment, cap on subsidised LPG cylinders, water problem followed by wages, salaries and pension.####HIMACHAL PRADESH POST POLL SURVEY 2012Methodology Key facts about the SurveyTime period when survey was conducted7-14 Nov 2012Number of Assembly Constituencies where survey was held32Number of Polling Stations where survey was held128Number of respondents targeted3840Total respondents achieved (Sample size)2328Sample ProfileSocial BackgroundShare in total population/electorateShare in Post Poll survey sampleWomen4847Urban108SC2524ST45Hindu9595Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off; figures for women represent share of female electors in total electorate as per ECI; figures for Urban are from Census 2011 Provisional Population Totals; figures for share of SC, ST, and Hindu in total population of Himachal Pradesh are from Census 2001.CONGRESS HAS AN EDGE IN A BATTLE THAT COULD GO EITHER WAYEstimated vote-shares – Neck and neck between Cong and BJPParty2007 Actual Result2012 Post Poll EstimateChange since 2007Cong3941+2BJP4440-4Others1719+2Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off; others include other parties and independents.Change in estimated vote-shares from Pre Poll survey to Post Poll surveyPartyOct 2012 Pre Poll EstimateNov 2012 Post Poll EstimateChange since Pre pollCong4041+1BJP4140-1Others19190Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off; Pre Poll survey was conducted between 14 Oct and 21 Oct 2012; Post Poll survey was conducted between 7 Nov and 14 Nov 2012. Pre Poll survey was conducted in 30 Assembly seats; Post Poll survey was conducted in the same 30 Assembly seats (out of which in 27 seats the same respondents were interviewed) and 2 additional seats.Cong vs BJP – Himachal’s closest race of last three decades expectedPartyVote shares in Assembly elections over the years19821985199019931998200320072012 (Est)BJP4355374944413941Cong3531423639354440Diff.8 pts.24 pts.5 pts.13 pts.5 pts.6 pts.5 pts.1 pt.Note: All figures are in per cent; Rest for others; these are vote share figures for all Assembly elections held in Himachal Pradesh since 1982; Himachal has had a history of changing governments at every election after 1985.Gap between Pro and Anti incumbency sentiments narrower compared to Pre Poll Should the BJP Govt. get another chance? Oct 2012 Pre PollNov 2012 Post PollYes4045No3442No opinion2613Note: All figures are in per cent.There seems to be a regional divide: East Himachal wants BJP govt. to go, West wants it to return Should the BJP Govt. get another chance? East HimachalWest HimachalYes3951No4738No opinion1411Note: All figures are in per cent; East Himachal consists of districts of Lahaul Spiti, Kullu, Mandi, Solan, Sirmaur, Shimla and Kinnaur. West Himachal consists of the districts of Chamba, Kangra, Hamirpur, Una, and Bilaspur. But within East and West, there also seem to be district level variationsEast Himachal (34)Cong leads overall but close races expected in Solan, Sirmaur, and Mandi districts.West Himachal (34)BJP leads overall but close races expected in Kangra, Chamba, and Una districts. Note: Figure in brackets indicates number of seats in the region.Virbhadra takes the lead, more popular than Dhumal and Shanta combinedChief Minister PreferenceOct 2012 Pre PollNov 2012 Post PollPrem Kumar Dhumal3435Virbhadra Singh3341Shanta Kumar25Others from BJP11Others from Congress12Others52Cant say/No opinion2414Note: All figures are in per cent. Virbhadra’s popularity highest among SCs and Men; Dhumal does best among RajputsChief Minister PreferenceAllSCsRajputsMenWomenPrem Kumar Dhumal3531403338Virbhadra Singh4146384438Note: All figures are in per cent; rest gave other preferences or had no opinion.Dhumal+Shanta combination had worked for BJP in 07, but Shanta has declined ever sinceYearsPREFERENCE FOR CHIEF MINISTERDhumalVirbhadra Shanta 20032930152007254023201235415Note: All figures in Columns 2, 3 and 4 are in per cent; rest gave other preferences or had no opinion; figures for 2003 based on a Pre Poll Survey and figures for 2007 and 2012 are based on Post Poll surveys.Best Chief Minister in the history of Himachal – Virbhadra on top here as well.Himachal’s best ever CMAllVirbhadra Singh36Prem Kumar Dhumal27Shanta Kumar15Thakur Ram Lal6Yashwant Parmar3Cant say/No opinion13Note: All figures are in per cent.Overall Candidates mattered as much as Party while voting; Cong voters voted more on Party basis than BJP voters.What mattered more while voting – Party or Candidate?AllCong votersBJP votersParty486153Candidate483642Can’t say435Note: All figures are in per cent.Satisfaction with BJP govt. high yet it offers no guarantee for re-election. That’s because in 2007 satisfaction with Cong govt.’s performance was also high and yet it was voted out.Satisfaction with State govt.BJP govt. 2012Cong govt. 2007Satisfied6467Dissatisfied2919Cant say714Note: All figures are in per cent; figures for 2007 are based on a Post Poll survey conducted then.Both Dhumal and Virbhadra govts rated almost equally in a direct comparisonWhich govt. has been better present BJP govt. or previous Cong govt.?AllEast HimachalWest HimachalPresent BJP govt. better393246Previous Cong govt. better384035Both equally good10128Both equally bad785No opinion686Note: All figures are in per cent.Both parties also rated almost equally on various issuesParty best for…Cong BJP BothHimachals youth313216Promoting tourism262817Ensuring legal sale-purchase of land262514Himachals development333216Note: All figures are in per cent; Rest said neither or could not say. Among the 18-25 years age group category, 40% respondents said Cong is best for Himachal’s youth and 33% said BJP. However among 26-35 years age group category 33% said Cong is best for youth and 35% said BJP.Both parties’ rule given almost equal credit for Himachal’s developmentHimachal has developed more under…AllNon literateLiterate & EducatedCong rule394238BJP rule383339Both Cong and BJP 12913Neither Cong nor BJP453Can’t say7117Note: All figures are in per cent.Main election issues; Price rise on top, corruption at no. 3Most important election issuesAllWomenPrice rise4244Roads1110Corruption107Employment87Cap on subsidised LPG cylinders57Water problem33Wages, salaries, pension22Note: All figures are in per cent; Rest mentioned other issues or had no opinion; Price rise and cap on subsidies LPG cylinders can be merged into one category.Awareness of scams not very high; and even among those who are aware, more seem to have voted for Cong than BJPAwareness of scams and its impact on voting preferencesHeard about itVoting preferences of those who had heardCongBJP2G scam514337CWG scam454336Coal scam524140ISPAT payoff issue384340Virbhadra CD case554238Note: All figures are in per cent; Rest had not heard and voted for othersAnd among those who are unaware of scams, more seem to have voted for BJP than CongAwareness of scams and its impact on voting preferencesNot heard about itVoting preferences of those who had not heardCongBJP2G scam493943CWG scam553943Coal scam484140ISPAT payoff issue624040Virbhadra CD case454347Note: All figures are in per cent; Rest had heard and voted for others.Most say Virbhadra is being falsely incriminated in corruption cases; even BJP voters not sure.Statement – Virbhadra Singh is being falsely implicated in corruption casesAllBJP votersCollege educatedAgree 443251Disagree 253529No opinion313320Note: All figures are in per cent.Barring NREGA, State schemes seem to be working more than Central in terms of benefit. Please note credit for contentious 108 Ambulance service seems to be going to State more than Centre.Govt. schemesThose who say they or their family members have benefittedThose who think it’s a Central schemeThose who think it’s a State schemeRealityOld age pension scheme295016Mainly Central schemeEmployment Guarantee scheme476312Central schemeHousing scheme (awaas yojana)194315Central and StateSchool Uniform scheme422348State scheme108 Ambulance service412549State and Central Lighting efficiency scheme (Bijli Bachat)442142State schemeNote: All figures are in per cent; for Column 2 Rest did not benefit; for Columns 3 and 4 Rest said both or dont know. Among respondents aged 56 years and above, 41% said they had benefitted from the pension scheme.Most say Centre has given adequate assistance to HimachalCentral Government has
AllEastWestGiven all possible support and assistance to Himachal363636Given support and assistance, but not enough263418Given no support and assistance to Himachal at all9616Note: All figures are in per cent; Rest had no opinion.Majority have voted on the basis of State govt.’s work; but even in an Assembly election there are some who voted keeping in mind Central govt.’s workVoted in election keeping in mind State govt.s work or Central govt’s work?%State govt’s work51Central govt’s work15Both15Neither3Note: Rest gave some other reasons or had no opinion.Too many private universities in Himachal agree Himachalis; in Solan where most of the private universities are located, the feeling is even stronger.Statement – Too many private universities have been opened in Himachal, much more than required.AllSolan districtCollege educatedAgree 506472Disagree 131512No opinion372116Note: All figures are in per cent.Overall, the opinion against creating new districts is stronger, but not so in Kangra where there has been a demand.Statement No new districts should be created in Himachal Pradesh nowAllKangra districtHamirpurdistrictAgree 412759Disagree 273717No opinion323624Note: All figures are in per cent.VOTE BY SOCIAL BACKGROUND AS PER POST POLL SURVEYCong expected to make significant gains among Brahmins, BJP among OBCs.Caste/communityCongBJPOthersBrahmins 38 (+12)39 (-23)23 (+11)Rajputs 38 (-2)42 (-4)20 (+6)Other Upper Castes 34 (-9)53 (+5)13 (+4)OBC 32 (-5)51 (+19)17 (-14)SC 49 (+2)36 (+3)15 (-5)Rest 50 (+16)20 (-46)30 (+30)Note: All figures are in per cent; Figures in brackets indicate change since 2007; Rest includes STs, Muslims, Sikhs, Buddhists and Christians; Figures for Rest should be read with caution due to small sample, particularly in 2007. According to rough estimates Brahmins constitute 20 per cent of Himachals population, Rajputs 28 per cent, Other Upper castes 8 per cent and OBCs 11 per cent; Apart from this SCs are 25 per cent according to Census 2001.Cong likely to do best among youngest voters, BJP among 26-35 years; It is important to note that nearly half of Himachals electorate is below 40 years.Age groupCongBJPOthers18-25 years45 (+10)34 (-15)21 (+5)26-35 years41 (-1)43 (+2)16 (-1)36-45 years41 (+5)40 (-9)19 (+4)46-55 years41 (+6)39 (-1)20 (-5)56+ years39 (-5)41 (-1)20 (+6)Note: All figures are in per cent; Figures in brackets indicate change since the 2007 election.Cong expected to gain and lead among non-literate and college educated, BJP likely to lead among low to medium educatedEducationCongBJPOthersNon literate46 (+6)38 (-2)16 (-4)Up to primary40 (-3)43 (+5)17 (-2)Up to matric.36 (-2)42 (-4)22 (+6)College educated45 (+7)38 (-10)17 (+3)Note: All figures are in per cent; Figures in brackets indicate change since the 2007 election.Men for Cong, Women for BJP; It is important to note that 77% women voted compared to 71% men.Gender BJPCongOthersMen 42 (+3)38 (-6)20 (+3)Women 40 (+1)43 (-1)17 (0) Note: All figures are in per cent; Figures in brackets indicate change since the 2007 election; Men constitute 52 per cent of Himachal’s total electorate, women constitute 48 per cent of Himachal’s total electorate; turnout of men in Assembly election 2012 was 71 per cent and turnout of women was 77 per cent.Which women have likely voted for BJP the most? Women’s vote for BJP BJPCongWomen overall4340Women from lower class4638Women educated up to matric.4635Women between 26-35 years4739Women from OBC community5628Note: All figures are in per cent; Rest voted for other parties and independents.Cong expected to be ahead among Poor and Middle classes, BJP likely to be ahead among Lower class Economic ClassCongBJPOthersRich424216Middle413722Lower394120Poor444115Note: All figures are in per cent.Cong expected to do well among Govt. employees and Businessmen, BJP likely to be ahead among the unemployed. OccupationCongBJPOthersProfessionals404218Govt. employees 383230Businessmen494011Farmers414019Others443818Unemployed394417Note: All figures are in per cent.Cong expected to be ahead among marginal and medium farmers, BJP among small farmers Farmers CongBJPOthersFarmers overall414019Big farmers 424216Medium farmers 413722Small farmers 354421Marginal farmers453818Tenant cultivators and agri labourers413623Note: All figures are in per cent; Big farmers are cultivators who own 20+ acres land, Medium farmers are cultivators who own 5-19 acres land, Small farmers are cultivators who own 1-4 acres land, and Marginal farmers are cultivators who own less than 1 acre land.