Cong says Karnataka pre-poll survey shows what people want
Posted on: 09:21 AM IST Apr 26, 2013
Bangalore: The Congress has welcomed the CNN-IBN-The Week survey on Karnataka Assembly elections, saying it clearly shows what the people of the state want. Congress leader Dinesh Gundu Rao said, "All indicators show that the Congress is ahead and should be able to form a government on its own with a comfortable majority. So, I think this is what the people of Karnataka want, they want a stable government and they want 5 years of good governance. I think the option is only Congress and no other, they don't have any other choice. So the Congress is definitely way ahead of all the other political parties."
The Bharatiya Janata Party, however, rejected the findings of the survey. "Jagadish Shettar has given a spotless government and people of north Karnataka are extremely happy about his leadership and I don't think these surveys are very correct and true," state BJP President Prahlad Joshi said. Former chief minister BS Yeddyurappa's Karnataka Janata Paksha is hopeful of a bright future. "KJP's future is very bright. We are hopeful that the people will vote KJP to see that Yeddyurappa becomes the CM," KJP leader V Dhananjay Kumar said.According to a pre-poll survey conducted by Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) for CNN-IBN and The Week in 294 locations of 75 constituencies spread across Karnataka a total of 4,198 people were interviewed and the results reveal that Congress is all set to decimate the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and storm the Vidhana Soudha with a clear majority.With an overwhelming lead of almost 14 percentage points in vote share over the BJP, the Congress (37 per cent vote share) is likely to secure 117-129 seats in the 224-member Assembly. According to the CSDS pre-poll survey the BJP will secure just 23 per cent of votes and win 39-49 seats, a huge fall from its heyday of 2008 when Karnataka become India's first southern state to have a BJP government.Former Karnataka chief minister BS Yeddyurappa, who quit the BJP and formed Karnataka Janata Paksha (KJP), is expected to hit his former party hard, looking set to secure seven per cent of the votes, while the Janata Dal Secular (JDS), with 20 per cent votes, will bag 34-44 seats, according to the survey. The other smaller parties and independents are likely to secure 13 per cent of the votes and win 14-22 seats. While the Congress was the biggest party in terms of vote share in 2008 with 35 per cent, and the BJP came second with 34 per cent, the latter won more seats than the former to form the government. But the scenario in 2013 is completely different, with the Congress likely to gain two percentage points, but the BJP set to suffer a major jolt by losing 11 percentage points in vote share to slump to 23 per cent - and losing power in the process.The JDS is also likely to gain one per cent in vote share to move to 20 per cent in 2013, while the Yeddyurappa-led KJP, which did not exist in 2008, will secure seven per cent of the votes. Other smaller parties and independents are set to corner 13 per cent of the votes, up one per cent.A look at the different regions shows that the Congress is comfortably ahead in most of them, whereas the BJP and the JDS are involved in a close race to determine who will take the second spot. Five years ago, most people liked both the BJP and Yedyurappa, but in 2013 most people dislike them.In Hyderabad Karnataka with 31 seats, the Congress has consolidated its lead over the BJP while the JDS has been on a downslide. The Congress looks set to recover and lead the BJP in Mumbai Karnataka which accounts for 50 seats whereas in Coastal Karntaka (21 seats) it is a close race between the two principal rivals with the JDS also improving its prospects.Central Karnataka (35 seats) is also likely to see a Congress triumph as the BJP's base in the region has been dented by the KJP. In Southern Karnataka (51 seats) it is close race between the JDS and Congress while Bangalore (36 seats) is backing the Congress as the BJP's fortunes take a dip while the JDS is also making some gains.Hyderabad Karnataka includes Gulbarga, Yadgir, Bidar, Raichur and Koppal districts; Mumbai Karnataka includes Belgaum, Bagalkot, Bijapur, Gadag, Dharwad and Haveri districts; Central Karnataka includes Bellary, Chitradurga, Davangere, Shimoga and Chikmagalur districts; Coastal Karnataka includes Uttar Kannada, Udupi, Dakshin Kannada and Kodagu.In fact the BJP is down across all key socio-economic categories compared to 2008 with the Congress reaping the benefits. There is a strong anti-incumbency against the present government with 57 per cent of the respondents are against the BJP getting another chance to rule the state.The BJP government has been assessed to be worse than the Congress-led Central government. But there is some hope for the BJP as its MLAs have been assessed better than the state government.In another major revelation, Yeddyurappa's government has been rated slightly better than Sadananda Gowda and Jagadish Shettar's governments. Ironically Yeddyurappa was forced to quit following allegations of massive corruption.Even though the Congress is way ahead of its rivals, its leaders are trailing in the chief ministership race which is led by HD Kumaraswamy of the JDS. Kumaraswamy is backed by 18 per cent of the respondents while KJP chief Yeddyurappa is second with 10 per cent of the votes and Siddaramaiah is the most popular of all Congress leaders with nine per cent.Caste is set to play a major role with Vokkaligas overwhelmingly rooting for Kumaraswamy and Lingayats backing Yeddyurappa. Kumaraswamy is also viewed as the best chief minister ever across all age groups while SM Krishna is a close second and Yeddyurappa third.In case of a hung Assembly most prefer a Congress-JDS alliance with JDS voters being overwhelmingly is favour of doing so.Most of the respondents also say that the Congress provided the best governance out of all governments in last 15 years and satisfaction with the UPA government and Manmohan Singh is also fairly high.Elections to the 224-member Assembly will take place in a single phase on May 5 and the counting is on May 8. ####Vote share projection Congress37%BJP 23%KJP 7%JDS 20% Others 13%Seat projection Congress117-129BJP 39-49JDS 34-44Others14-22Survey details Time period of fieldwork10-17th April, 2013 Number of Assembly Constituencies 75 Number of Polling Stations 294 Total respondents 4198 Sample Profile Actual share in total population Share in Pre-poll Survey sample Women 49 47 Urban 39 36 SC16 23 ST7 8 Muslim12 11 Hindu 84 86 Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off; figures for actual share of Women and Urban in total population of Karnataka are from Census 2011 Provisional Population Totals; figures for actual share of SC, ST, Muslim and Hindu are from Census 2001.Estimated vote-shares Cong improves & leads, JDS also gains, KJP enters, BJP slumps Party2008 Actual Result 2013 Pre-poll Estimate Change since 2008 Congress (Cong) 3537 +2 Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) 34 23 -11 Janata Dal Secular (JDS)19 20+1 Karnataka Janata Paksha (KJP)- 7 +7 Others1213 +1 Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off; Others include other parties and independents. KJP was not in the fray in 2008.Cong voters seemed to be slightly surer about their preference than BJP & JDS during the pre-poll survey All Cong voters BJP voters JDS voters Will vote for the same party on voting day 6773 7067 Vote may change on voting day 23 20 23 26 Cant say/No response1077 7 Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence may not add up to 100. The Regional picture according to the Survey Hyderabad Karnataka (31)Cong consolidates lead over BJP; JDS down Mumbai Karnataka (50) Cong looks set to recover and lead BJP Coastal Karntaka (21) Close race between BJP and Cong; JDS improves Central Karnataka (35) Cong likely to emerge on top; BJP base dented by KJP Southern Karnataka (51) Close race between JDS and Cong Bangalore (36) Cong ahead; BJP slumps; JDS gains Note: Figure in brackets indicates number of seats in the region; Hyderabad Karnataka includes Gulbarga, Yadgir, Bidar, Raichur, Koppal districts; Mumbai Karnataka includes Belgaum, Bagalkot, Bijapur, Gadag, Dharwad, Haveri districts; Central Karnataka includes Bellary, Chitradurga, Davangere, Shimoga, Chikmagalur districts; Coastal Karnataka includes Uttar Kannada, Udupi, Dakshin Kannada, Kodagu districts; Southern Karnataka includesTumkur, Chikkballapur, Kolar, Mandya, Hassan, Mysore, Chamrajnagar districts; Bangalore includes Bangalore Urban, Bangalore Rural, Ramanagaram districts.BJP down across all key socio-economic categories compared to 2008 CategoriesLIKELY CHANGES SINCE 2008 CONGBJPJDS Voters aged 18-35 years Up & leading Down Up UrbanUp & leading DownSame RuralUp & leadingDown Same WomenUp & leadingDown Same Rich & middle class Up & leading Down Same Lower class & poorSame but leading DownUp College educatedUp & leadingDown Up LingayatsUpDown but leading Down Vokkaligas DownDown Up & leading OBCsSame but leading DownSame SCsSame but leadingDownSame MuslimsSame but leadingDown Down Note: Same means same as 2008, Down means down compared to 2008, Up means up compared to 2008; leading means ahead of all the other parties Strong anti-incumbency against the BJP government Should the State BJP Govt. get another chance? Yes 21 No 57 No opinion22 Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence may not add up to 100. BJP State govt. assessed worse than Cong-led Central govt. Overall satisfaction with.. BJP State govt.Cong-led Central govt. Fully satisfied 14 13 Somewhat satisfied38 47 Somewhat dissatisfied119 Fully dissatisfied2211 Cant say/No response15 20 Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence may not add up to 100. Some hope for BJP – Party MLAs assessed better than the State govt. Overall satisfaction with.. BJP MLAsBJP State govt. Fully satisfied 24 14 Somewhat satisfied47 38 Somewhat dissatisfied911 Fully dissatisfied1322 Cant say/No response8 15 Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence may not add up to 100. Report card of BJP State governments work: Mixed assessment Improved Remained same Worsened Condition of roads 3537 +2 Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) 50 28 20 Condition of Government hospitals33 4222 Supply of electricity26 35 36 Irrigation facilities2737+1 Condition of Government schools44 35 16 Supply of drinking water323528 Public transport42 31 23 Condition of law and order213527 Religious harmony25 32 23 Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off; Rest of the respondents could not say or gave no response.Increased Remained same Decreased Prices of essential commodities 8112 6 Corruption 69 17 9 Employment opportunities203534 Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off; Rest of the respondents could not say or gave no response.Satisfaction with BJP chief ministers not too high; Yeddyurappas govt rated slightly better than Gowdas and Shettars Satisfaction with different BJP governments over the last five yearsB S Yeddyurappas government Sadananda Gowdas government Jagadish Shettars government Fully Satisfied 2212 14 Somewhat satisfied 32 3633 Somewhat dissatisfied16 2319 Fully dissatisfied22 19 22 Cant say/No response81012 Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence may not add up to 100. Kumaraswamy most preferred Chief Minister followed by Yeddyurappa; Siddaramaiah most popular of all Cong leaders Chief Minister Preference2008 2009 2013 H D Kumaraswamy 2019 18 B S Yeddyurappa30 3310 Siddaramaiah449 S M Krishna15 15 8 Jagadish Shettar006 CSadananda Gowda0 0 3 Dharam Singh 48 1 Mallikarjuna Kharge7 91 Others 1058 Dont know/No response10 636 Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence may not add up to 100. Figures for 2008 are from a Post Poll survey conducted by CSDS during the 2008 Karnataka Assembly election. Sample size for the 2008 survey was 6041. Figures for 2009 are from National Election Study conducted by CSDS during the Lok Sabha polls. Sample size for 2009 was 2120. All responses are spontaneous and to an open ended question.Kumaraswamy also viewed as best chief minister ever, across age groups; Hegdes name taken more by older voters than younger ones. Best CM in Karnatakas historyAll 18-35 yrs 36-45 yrs Above 45 yrs H D Kumaraswamy 1516 1514 S M Krishna 14 16 13 13 B S Yeddyurappa888 9 Ramakrishna Hegde76 78 S Nijalingappa 4 3 5 3 Devraj Urs342 3 S Bangarappa3 3 3 2 Others16151617 Cant say/No response30 29 32 30 Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence may not add up to 100. Most say Congress provided best governance out of all governments in last 15 years Best governance in last 15 years provided by
Congress govt (1999-06) 40 JDS govt (2006-07) 24 BJP govt (2007-13)20 All equally good/bad 8 Cant say/No response8 Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence may not add up to 100. Satisfaction with UPA government and Manmohan Singh fairly high UPA govts performance Manmohan Singhs performance as PM Fully satisfied1320 Somewhat satisfied4743 Somewhat dissatisfied96 Fully dissatisfied11 10 Cant say/No response2121 Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence may not add up to 100. Corruption most important voting issue, but majority still undecided or did not give an opinion Key issue for voters when they go out to vote Corruption of State govt/BJP 9 Price rise 7 Water problem4 Support for parties 4 State govts performance3 States development 3 Condition of roads2 Jobs 2 Good candidate1 Electricity1 Other smaller issues9 Cant say/No response55 Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence may not add up to 100. All responses are spontaneous and to an open ended question Central and State government both seen as being Corrupt Corruption assessment of governments BJP State govt of Shettar UPA Central govt of Manmohan Very corrupt1720 Somewhat corrupt4746 Not at all corrupt1515 Cant say/No response21 20 Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence may not add up to 100. Most prefer Cong-JDS alliance in case of Hung Assembly; JDS voters particularly so Preferred alliance in event of hung assemblyAll Cong voters BJP voters JDS voters Cong-JDS 4153 1858 BJP-JDS 15 5 33 14 Cong-BJP5682 Other combinations23192816 Dont know/Cant say 16 17 1310 Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off; Rest of the respondents gave some other partys name or gave no response Five years ago most people liked both BJP and Yedyurappa; five years later most people dislike them Opinion on BJP and Yeddyurappa 2008 2013 I like both the BJP and Yeddyurappa3415 I like BJP, I dont like Yeddyurappa920 I dont like BJP, I like Yeddyurappa910 I dont like both BJP and Yeddyurappa16 31 Cant say/No response3124 Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence may not add up to 100. Figures for 2008 are from a Post Poll survey conducted by CSDS during the 2008 Karnataka Assembly election. Sample size for the 2008 survey was 6041. Opinion on Yeddyurappa and his removal BJP supporters more upset with Yeddyurappas removal than others StatementsAll BJP supporters AgreeDisagree AgreeDisagree BJPs Central leadership did the right thing by forcing Yeddyurappa to step down as CM 59 27 58 35 The repeated change of CMs in Karnataka over the last five years has been in the interest of the State40434646 Karnataka BJP has become a less corrupt party after Yeddyurappas exit42394643 Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off; Rest of the respondents could not say or gave no response Most respondents say Yeddyurappa betrayed the BJP; however BJP supporters divided on the issue Yeddyurappa betrayed by BJP? All BJP supporters Yes, he was betrayed by his party3242 No, it was he who betrayed the BJP4341 Cant say/No response2518 Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence may not add up to 100BJP seen as being most corrupt, nepotistic and faction ridden of all parties Which party is..Cong BJP JDS More corrupt? 1853 4 More nepotistic?17 4114 More faction ridden?163414 Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off; Rest of the respondents said all three, none of the three or could not say or gave no response. Party seen as being best for governance tasks Which party is..Cong BJP JDS Best for States development (responses of all respondents)3325 19 Best for curbing illegal mining (responses of all respondents)222018 Best for religious harmony (responses of all respondents)232319 Best for protecting States interest in Cauvery dispute with Tamil Nadu (responses only of Southern Karnataka region )21 15 26 Best for protecting States interest in border dispute with Maharashtra (responses only of Mumbai Karnataka region)2127 20 Best for Karnatakas youth (responses only of youth 18-35)271722 Best for cities/towns (responses only of urban respondents)242119 Best for agriculture (responses only of farmers/agri workers)171730 Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off; Rest of the respondents said all three, none of the three or could not say or gave no response. KJP and BSR Congress: Spoilers or Serious contenders? Perception regarding new parties KJP BSR Congress Spoiler for main parties2314 Serious contender to main parties3020 Both1317 Neither916 Cant say/No response2632 Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence may not add up to 100; BSR Congress is short for Badavara Shramikara Raitha Congress Opinion on migrants from other states Opinion on migrants from other states Migrants from other states pose danger to Karnatakas culture 16 Migrants from other states affecting employment opportunities and busineses of local people 29 Migrants pose danger to both culture and employment20 Migrants have had no adverse effect 20 Cant say/ No response15 Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence may not add up to 100. Majority of Bangaloreans in favour of idea of a directly elected city mayor Should Bangalore have a directly elected mayor? Bangalore respondents Yes 56 No 31 Cant say 14 Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence may not add up to 100 Bangalore being pampered or ignored? Karnataka government gives
Bangalore respondents Rest of Karnataka respondents Too much attention to Bangalore2424 Sufficient attention to Bangalore4632 Less than needed attention to Bangalore175 Cant say/No response1439 Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence may not add up to 100Traffic congestion is Bangalores most important problem say most respondents Bangalores main problems Bangalore respondents Rest of Karnataka respondents Traffic congestion4033 Pollution1711 Unplanned growth of city125 Crime813 Lack of access to drinking water84 High cost of living64 Frequent power cuts32 Cant say/No response528 Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence may not add up to 100 Development of Bangalore has improved in last five years say most Bangaloreans In last five years, development of Bangalore region has.. Bangalore respodnents Improved 49 Remained same 24 Worsened13 Cant say/No response 14 Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence may not add up to 100 Cong seen as Best for towns and cities both in Bangalore and Rest of Urban Karnataka Which party is Best for cities/towns BangaloreUrban Karnataka Cong2524 BJP2319 JDS2020 All1211 None77 Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence may not add up to 100; rest could not say or gave no response