Bangalore: 4:49 pm: The Bharatiya Janata Party has accepted the defeat and Chief Minister Jagadish Shettar is set to resign on Wednesday evening. "We accept people's mandate; will resign this evening," says Shettar.
4:18 pm: The final tally of votes stands at Congress winning 121 seats, BJP and JDS winning 40 seats each and KJP winning 6 seats. Other parties and Independents won 16 seats.
2:06 pm: The Congress is comfortably moving way ahead of the majority mark. While it has won 110 seats, it is leading in 10 seats.
1:18 pm: Reacting to the Congress's victory, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said, "I congratulates congress for working hard. Certainly corruption by BJP is a message of electorate. Corruption is a big issue for the country."
Congress President Sonia Gandhi said, "I am happy with the victory, it's a joint effort and legislators will decide the leader."
12:52 pm: The Congress has got majority in Karnataka and has ousted the BJP to form the government in the state.
12:35 pm: The Congress has now won 67 seats in Karnataka and was leading in 48. Finance Minister P Chidambaram said, "Even Modi won't say he was a factor in Karnataka. We will give a stable government in Karnataka."
12:24 pm: The Congress has so far won 55 seats in Karnataka. The JDS follows with 23 seats. The BJP is far behind with 9 seats.
12:13 pm: According to ETV Karnataka, the Congress has won 44 seats, followed by the JDS that has won 17 seats.
12 noon: There were celebrations outside probable CM candidate Siddaramaiah's residence as Congress was leading in 118 seats.
11:53 am: The Congress is now leading in 116 seats. The JDS is leading in 41 seats. According to ETV Karnataka, the Congress has won 37 seats.
11:37 am: the Congress is now leading in 116 seats as the trends for all 223 seats are in.
11:26 am: The Congress is now leading in 118 seats and is set to form the government on its own. The question now is as to who will be the chief minister from the Congress. Union Minister Mallikarjuna Kharge and Siddaramaiah are being seen as the two frontrunners.
11:12 am: The Congress has crossed the half-way mark and is leading in 114 seats. The trends for all 223 seats are in.
11:09 am: While the Congress looks set to form the government in Karnataka, the BJP is pushed to the third spot. The JDS is ahead of the BJP and is leading in 42 seats.
10:57 am: The leads for 221 seats are in. The Congress looks set to form the government and is leading in 109 seats. The
10:48 am: BJP MLC Lehar Singh Siroya says the BJP made some mistakes on BS Yeddyurappa and mishandled the issue. He also says that Yeddyurappa should return to the BJP.
10:45 am: The Congress is close to the half-way mark and is leading in 111 seats.
10:40 am: The Congress has reached the half-way mark and is leading in 112 seats.
10:35 am: The Congress is leading in 107 seats as trends for 220 seats are in. This indicates that the Congress may not get a clear majority and may need the support of Independents.
10:28: The Congress is now leading in 104 seats while the BJP and JDS are now close with leads in 42 and 45 seats respectively.
10:19 am: The Congress has taken a huge lead in Karnataka and is ahead in 103 seats. However, it may fall short of the half-way mark. The JDS is second and is leading in 45 seats. The BJP has suffered a massive blow and is trailing with leads in 37 seats.
10:13 am: The Congress is now leading in 99 seats while the JDS follows with leads in 42 seats. The BJP is leading in 38 seats.
10:03 am: The Congress looks set to form the government in Karnataka, but may still be short of the half-way mark. The Congress is leading in 96 seats. The JDS is second with leads in 42 seats.
9:58 am: The Congress is now way ahead and is leading in 90 seats. The BJP seems to have been hit hard and is trailing as the JDS is second with leads in 43 seats. The BJP is leading in 39 seats.
9:52 am: The Congress has taken a big lead and is ahead in 84 seats. The BJP is now trailing as the JDS is ahead of it with leads in 41 seats.
9:48 am: The Congress is now ahead in 80 seats while the BJP and JDS are close with leads in 41 and 40 seats respectively. The leads for 183 seats are in.
9:42 am: The Congress is now leading in 73 seats while the BJP leads in 37 seats. The JDS is ahead of BJP with leads in 38 seats.
9:31 am: According to regional channel ETV Karnataka, the Congress is way ahead with leads in 99 seats while the JDS is second with 41 seats. The BJP is trailing with leads in 38 seats.
9:29 am: The Congress is way ahead of the BJP and is leading in 66 seats. The BJP is now leading in 36 seats followed by the JDS which is leading in 26 seats.
9:27 am: BJP leader Sadananda Gowda says that the party will get close to 70 or 80 seats. This comes as the Congress leads in 62 seats and the CJP in 35.
9:24 am: The Congress is ahead of BJP and is leading in 61 seats.
9:18 am: The Congress maintains its lead and is ahead in 53 seats. The BJP is leading in 33 seats.
9:14 am: The Congress is ahead in the Karnataka elections with leads in 53 seats. The BJP follows with leads in 29 seats, followed by JDS which is leading in 20 seats.
9:11 am: The Congress is now leading in 49 seats while the BJP is leading in 27 seats. The JDS is leading in 19 seats. Leads for 109 seats are in.
9:05 am: The Congress is now well ahead of the BJP with leads in 43 seats. The BJP is leading in 26 seats. Leads for 93 seats are in.
9:00 am: The Congress is now leading in 32 seats while the BJP is leading in 23 seats. The leads are in for 75 seats.
8:53 am: The Congress is ahead of the BJP and is leading in 21 seats as counting is on in Karnataka. The BJP is leading in 14 seats. The JDS and KJP are trailing with leads in 7 and 3 seats respectively.
8:49 am: The Congress inches ahead of the BJP with the JDS and Yeddyurappa's KJP far behind.
8:45 am: The Congress is now leading in 13 seats while the BJP is leading in 11.
8:42 am: The Congress is now ahead with leads in 10 seats while the BJP follows with leads in 9 seats.
8:41 am: The leads for 4 seats in Bangalore are in with JDS leading in 2 and Congress in 2.
8:39: The Congress and BJP are in a close race with Congress leading in 9 seats and BJP in 7.
8:36 am: The BJP is now ahead of Congress with leads in 7 seats. As the leads for 21 seats are in, the Congress is still leading in 6 seats.
8:33 am: The Congress and BJP are now neck and neck with both leading in 6 seats each.
8:31 am: The BJP has taken leads in 5 seats while the Congress continues to lead in 6.
8:29 am: The Congress is now leading in 6 seats, while the JDS and BJP follow with leads in 4 seats each. The leads for 17 seats are in.
8:27 am: The BJP and JDS are leading in 3 seats each while the Congress is leading in 4 seats. The KJP is trailing with leads in 2 seats. Other parties are leading in one seat. The leads for 13 seats are in.
8:23 am: BS Yeddyurappa's Karnataka Janata Paksha has taken a lead in two seats. The Congress is leading in 4 seats.
8:20 am: The Congress is leading in 3 seats The Janata Dal Secular has also taken a lead in 3 seats. The BJP is leading in 2 seats. The leads for 9 seats are in.
8:17 am: The Congress has now taken initial leads in two seats while the BJP is leading in one.
8:13 am: The Bharatiya Janata Party has taken the first lead and was leading in one seat in the Mumbai Karnataka region.
8:00 am: Counting has begun to decide the fate of 2,940 candidates in 223 Assembly segments in the southern state of Karnataka. The results for the Karnataka Assembly elections, which recorded the second highest voter turnout in 35 years with a polling percentage of 71.29 in the May 5 voting, will be known on Wednesday. Although Karnataka Assembly has 224 seats, election in Periyapatna in Mysore district had been put off to May 28 following the death of a BJP candidate.
Authorities had made elaborate security arrangements with some 1.35 lakh police personnel on duty in some 52,000 polling booths where about 65,000 electronic voting machines had been installed. Barring sporadic incidents, including one at Bellary, the voting was largely peaceful.
A recharged Congress, which is challenging the corruption-tainted BJP, sees the highly impressive polling percentage as a clear sign of winds of change that would bring the party back to power after an eight-year long hiatus. However, the ruling BJP has a different take. It feels the increase in turnout was because more BJP supporters came out to vote.
While the final results will be known only a few hours after the counting begins, trends indicate that the Congress is likely to make a comeback even though its victory march has hit a few roadblocks.
A pre-poll survey conducted in April by Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) for CNN-IBN and The Week in 294 locations of 75 constituencies spread across Karnataka interviewed a total of 4,198 people. The results revealed that Congress is all set to decimate the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and storm the Vidhana Soudha with a clear majority. The pre-poll findings were aired on April 25, 10 days before the state voted.
In those 10 days there have been some changes on the ground which now reveal that even though the Congress is still way ahead of its rivals, according to the revised estimates the party's seat tally is likely to come down to 100-116 even as the BJP and former prime minister HD Devegowda's Janata Dal Secular are in a neck and neck battle for the second spot with both likely to get 43-53 seats. The revised estimates show that others will bag 16-24 seats.
The five reasons why CNN-IBN believes that the projection done then, would alter now, are:
1. Faulty choice of candidates by Congress leading to unhappiness within the party and open and subtle opposition to the official nominee.
2. Infighting between prominent leaders of the Congress and absence of a well orchestrated and coordinated campaign.
3. Consolidation of Vokkaliga vote behind the JDS in Southern Karnataka and Bangalore rural.
4. Split in Lingayat vote between BJP and KJP in Northern Karnataka, resulting jn a advantage for the Congress.
5. Strong impact of double anti-incumbency against the BJP (against government and against individual MLA's many of whom have completed two or three terms) in coastal Karnataka that has worked to the advantage of Congress.
The pre-poll survey aired on April 25 gave the Congress an overwhelming lead of almost 14 percentage points in vote share over the BJP. According to the pre-poll survey the Congress (37 per cent vote share) was likely to secure 117-129 seats in the 224-member Assembly. According to the CSDS pre-poll survey the BJP then would have secured just 23 per cent of votes and won 39-49 seats, a huge fall from its heyday of 2008 when Karnataka become India's first southern state to have a BJP government.
Former Karnataka chief minister BS Yeddyurappa, who quit the BJP and formed Karnataka Janata Paksha (KJP), was expected to hit his former party hard, looking set to secure seven per cent of the votes, while the Janata Dal Secular (JDS), with 20 per cent votes, would have bagged 34-44 seats, according to the survey. The other smaller parties and independents were likely to secure 13 per cent of the votes and get 14-22 seats.
While the Congress was the biggest party in terms of vote share in 2008 with 35 per cent, and the BJP came second with 34 per cent, the latter won more seats than the former to form the government.
A look at the different regions showed that the Congress was comfortably ahead in most of them, whereas the BJP and the JDS were involved in a close race to determine who would take the second spot. Five years ago, most people liked both the BJP and Yedyurappa, but in 2013 most people dislike them.
In Hyderabad Karnataka with 31 seats, the Congress had consolidated its lead over the BJP while the JDS had been on a downslide. The Congress looked set to recover and lead the BJP in Mumbai Karnataka which accounts for 50 seats whereas in Coastal Karntaka (21 seats) it was a close race between the two principal rivals with the JDS also improving its prospects.
Central Karnataka (35 seats) was also likely to see a Congress triumph as the BJP's base in the region has been dented by the KJP. In Southern Karnataka (51 seats) it was close race between the JDS and Congress while Bangalore (36 seats) was backing the Congress as the BJP's fortunes took a dip while the JDS was also making some gains.
Hyderabad Karnataka includes Gulbarga, Yadgir, Bidar, Raichur and Koppal districts; Mumbai Karnataka includes Belgaum, Bagalkot, Bijapur, Gadag, Dharwad and Haveri districts; Central Karnataka includes Bellary, Chitradurga, Davangere, Shimoga and Chikmagalur districts; Coastal Karnataka includes Uttar Kannada, Udupi, Dakshin Kannada and Kodagu.
In fact the BJP is down across all key socio-economic categories compared to 2008 with the Congress reaping the benefits. There is a strong anti-incumbency against the present government with 57 per cent of the respondents are against the BJP getting another chance to rule the state.
The BJP government has been assessed to be worse than the Congress-led Central government. But there is some hope for the BJP as its MLAs have been assessed better than the state government.
In another major revelation, Yeddyurappa's government has been rated slightly better than Sadananda Gowda and Jagadish Shettar's governments. Ironically Yeddyurappa was forced to quit following allegations of massive corruption.
Even though the Congress was way ahead of its rivals, its leaders were trailing in the chief ministership race which was led by HD Kumaraswamy of the JDS. Kumaraswamy was backed by 18 per cent of the respondents while KJP chief Yeddyurappa was second with 10 per cent of the votes and Siddaramaiah was the most popular of all Congress leaders with nine per cent.
Caste is set to play a major role with Vokkaligas overwhelmingly rooting for Kumaraswamy and Lingayats backing Yeddyurappa. Kumaraswamy is also viewed as the best chief minister ever across all age groups while SM Krishna is a close second and Yeddyurappa third. In case of a hung Assembly most preferred a Congress-JDS alliance with JDS voters being overwhelmingly in favour of doing so.
Most of the respondents then said that the Congress provided the best governance out of all governments in last 15 years and satisfaction with the UPA government and Manmohan Singh was also fairly high.
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