The Karnataka Assembly polls are less than a month away. The ramifications of the polls are likely to impact even the 2014 general election results, pundits predict. Discuss with a senior journalist whether the BJP can hold on to the only state in south India where it has some electoral clout or if they will be pushed out by the Congress? How big a factor will be BS Yeddyurappa? Senior journalist Imran Qureshi joined IBNLive readers for an interaction on the issue.
Q. Will there be a single party rule in Karnataka? Asked by: Jyoti
A. As of now, most likely. The reason : the Congress list is yet to be finalised. And, on this depends the remaining lists of BJP and the JDS.
Q. Do you think Yeddy's rebellion will cost BJP dear or their corruption & being a disgruntled unit Asked by: Nagarajan
A. Yes and No. Yeddyurappa will cut into the BJP just like Bangarappa did to the Congress some elections ago. But, the BJP also could benefit from his leaving the party.
Q. How big a factor will be BS Yeddyurappa? Asked by: Anu
A. He is a big factor for the BJP. He will be cutting the BJP to a considerable extent.
Q. Can Congress overcome infighting to win Karnataka? Asked by: VARUN RAMESH
A. Nobody can bet on this point. It is a party which can fight and come to power on its own. It can also, as it has always been said, defeat itself. As a matter of fact, there are several occasions in the past when it has successfully defeated itself.
Q. Will BJP Benefit in Karnataka as LS polls are Round the Corner ..as Mr Modi is Expected to be announce PM candidate? Asked by: Shiva
A. 2013 is different from 2014. Let us not forget that in the history of democracy, Karnataka voters hold the record for clearly deciding who will rule the country and who will rule the state. In 1984, Karnataka decided that Rajiv Gandhi will rule the nation. Exactly three months later, they told Rajiv Gandhi that we trust Ramakrishna Hegde of the Janata party to rule the state.
Q. Do you think Modi can make a mark in Karnataka? Asked by: Tharun Koshy
A. Modi may be able to make a mark among the educated and the middle classes who are a wee bit tired of the UPA. But, the BJP in Karnataka has performed so well on the corruption, maladministration and other parameters that Modi may not be able to help the BJP. Perhaps, that is the reason why, as per current plans, he is will be addressing a few rallies and not leading the campaign. he should have been present at least today when the BJP is launching its campaign. Even MR Advani is not here in Bangalore.
Q. I understand BSY will harm all the parties, a Hung assembly on the cards? Asked by: prasad kdv, hyderabad
A. BSY will harm the BJP more than any other party. A firm Yes or a No on a hung assembly is not possible now. The candidates are yet to be finalised and we still do not know the exact nature of the campaign.
Q. What amount of impact do recently concluded civic polls have in the Assembly and LS polls? Asked by: ganesh
A. The last ULB polls gave the Congress a big lead over the other parties but the BJP came to power. The issues are different in each of these elections.
Q. Who is the likely CM candidate for Congress? Asked by: Vijay
A. The choice is between Siddaramaiah and Dr Parameshwara. Mallikarjuna Kharge could be the third candidate if the age criteria is ignored by the Congress high command...like it has ignored several criteria in recent times in the selection of candidates.
Q. Dear Mr. Qureshi, I want your honest and sincere opinion on BJP's prospects in Karnataka? Will they retain power? Or will Yeduriappa make a spoilsport for BJP? Will Modi factor plays major role for BJP in retaining power? Will Congress make it without default on Yeddyurappa's surge? How many seats each party will get? will there be a split verdict? Please answer in detail. Asked by: V.Nandakumar, Chennai
A. All your questions have been answered in my replies earlier.
Q. BJP will be voted out in K'taka..this is confirm..but will the congress be able to form the gov on its own..or will it had to take the support of JD (S).. Asked by: Rohit
A. The mood as of now appears to be anti-BJP in Karnataka. To what extent the Congress can convert this anti-incumbency depends upon on various factors. One is the candidates the party will field. The other is how it campaigns to make the vote a positive vote for the Congress.
Q. If you want to give some suggestion to Karnataka BJP Unit regarding how they could replicate Madhya Pradesh or Gujarat Module. what would be steps in this juncture to come back in power once again .... Asked by: Biswajit Pandey
A. The BJP had 5 full years to replicate the Gujarat or MP or any other state or their own model. Unfortunately, the BJP frittered it all away with partymen, led by even a chief minister, going in a procession to the Lokayukta Court.
Q. Every on is talking about BJP Congress..what is the prospect of JD(S).. Asked by: Kunaian
A. The JDS is expected to do well in Southern Karnataka. It faces a tough fight with the Congress. But, unless it scores remarkably well in Northern Karnataka, it is unlikely to form a government on its own. In Northern Karnataka, it does not have the same influence as in Southern Karnataka.
Q. Can power thirst Yeddurappa emerge as a king maker..that his support will decide the formation of the congress led or bjp led government..or there will be clean sweep by Congress.. Asked by: Jiva milkha
A. It all depends on the Congress. If it selects the right candidates and campaigns well, then it will not need the support of Yeddyurappa. It is, indeed, too early to say whether the Congress will form the government. What is clear is that it is ahead of the other two in forming the next government.
Q. Were there any Real development in BJP's tenure? Asked by: Arun
A. The real development was that it taught the nation how to subvert the anti-defection law. Operation Lotus was the most innovative programme. It got Congress and JDS members to resign from their seats and contest as BJP candidates so that it graduated from a minority to a majority government.In the bargain, it did everything that it had promised not to do. It promised a clean government and offered "development development development" as the mantra. It did just the opposite.
Q. Is there any chance for BJP to regain the only south Indian government it has..any possibility of this.. Asked by: Subramanium
A. No. It does not look like it at all at this sta
Q. Dear Mr Qureshi, Do you see Advantage BJP to some extent, the way they removed corrupt BSY and few other ministers, don't you think this was a positive step which can have some positive impact on voters? Asked by: Rakesh
A. Yes. The BJP did remove BSY but it was too late. The perception among the people of the BJP is that it provided a corrupt, inept government.
Q. Will all the parties declare their CM candidate before the poll? Asked by: kamate
A. Only the BJP and the JDS have. Jagdish Shettar for the BJP and H D Kumaraswamy for the JDS. The Congress, as a matter of policy, always announces its CM candidate after the elections.
Q. Will congress bring in the change in the state..this is the party who has got maximum tenure every where but have done worse and worse only..are the people going to vote the congress as there is no other option.. Asked by: Chariyapa
A. People of Karnataka always live with hope that any party that comes to power will do something good for the state. In 1999, nobody expected the Congress to have a developmental agenda and perform so well. But, it lost the 2004 elections. In the past...in 1989, the Congress lost because of infighting. So, keep your fingers crossed. What appears clear now is that the state performs better when it is a single party rule. There are no more politicians like Ramakrishna Hedge who practiced coalition politics in 1983 for two years.