Rebels, smaller parties give UPA a tough time

WAITING FOR A DEAL: Leaders of smaller parties are bargaining hard with the UPA for their support.

    

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New Delhi: The weekend is set to see heavy political activity as the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) Government tries its best to get the numbers to win the vote of confidence in the Lok Sabha on July 22.

With possibility of rebellion and cross-voting, and allegations of horse-trading doing the rounds, Congress floor managers are having a tough time in securing the support of smaller parties.

Just a week back, the government was confident of winning the vote of confidence but now it seems that getting to the halfway mark of 272 in the 543-member Lok Sabha is not so easy.

Even Congress President Sonia Gandhi has ordered her Members of Parliament (MPs) to start meeting their constituents in case the government falls and elections take place. Congress General Secretary Rahul Gandhi has also cut short his visit to Vidarbha in Maharashtra and will return to Delhi on Saturday.

The big vote

The UPA has 217 assured votes from within its ranks, along with the Samajwadi Patry's 35 and five other MPs. So the total tally for the Central Government stands at 257.

Samajwadi rebel factor

So it is not yet time for the UPA's managers to have a good night's sleep. The first big worry for them is the SP rebel factor - Ateeq Ahmed, Munawar Hassan, Jaiprakash Rawat and Afzal Ansari have now deserted their party and will in all likelihood cast their votes against the UPA.

Smaller parties

The second big worry is the smaller parties. Jharkhand Mukti Morcha's Shibu Soren, Rashtriya Lok Dal's Ajit Singh, National Conference's Omar Abdullah, and Janata Dal Secular's HD Deve Gowda remain non-committal on the trust vote.

Also the UPA managers have to deal with too many small party MPs.

Against the government

The Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance, the Left, the Bahujan Samaj Party, rebels from other parties, and other smaller parties together have cobbled up a strength of 265.

So they do have a lead of eight MPs over the Government

Opposition's big worry

But it's hardly time for them to start celebrating. The first big worry for the Opposition is that at least three to four BJP MPs could abstain from the trust vote.

Second none of the undecided small parties are keen to support the NDA because of their so-called 'secular' and regional compulsions.

The big picture

So the big picture for the Government shows that it has 257 in its support as on July 18 and needs 14 of the 19 undecided MPs to be on its side during the trust vote or they need at least six to eight abstentions so that the halfway mark comes down to somewhere around 267.

The Congress is however still sounding confident of securing the numbers.

"After the government decided to move the confidence motion, we are confident that we will get whatever number we need and even more. That is why all along I have taken position that we will have 280 plus. Plus is our bonus which we are getting," Congress spokesperson and Minister for Parliamentary Affairs Vayalar Ravi said.