Seats down but BJP may scrape through in Guj

SAFFRON SOLDIER: Chief Minister Modi is far ahead of BJP and Congress leaders in popularity.

                  

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New Delhi: If the science of opinion polling is anything to go by, Narendra Modi is likely to create an electoral history of sorts by returning to power in Gujarat. The findings of the Indian Express-CNN-IBN-Divya Bhaskar Gujarat poll suggest that despite losing some popular support, the BJP in Gujarat has retained much of the edge that it has enjoyed over the Congress in the last decade or more.

The poll suggests that the BJP improved its performance in the last few days before elections and is likely to return a very impressive performance in the second phase of polling. (Read methodology)

It poll estimates that the BJP will end up between 92-100 seats and thus win a clear majority in the 182 member state assembly. The Congress on the other hand is expected to improve its tally from 51 in the last elections to 77-85 this time but fall short of challenging the BJP.

The BSP and other rebels may cut into the votes of the main parties but are not expected to move into double digits.

The best news for the BJP comes from north Gujarat region that went to polls in the second phase. Here internal dissension within the Congress appears to have taken a toll on the party and the BJP appears all set to repeat its spectacular performance in the 2002.

It may lose a few seats in Central Gujarat region, the epicentre of anti-Muslim riots in 2002 which the BJP swept in the elections that year, but is likely to retain an upper hand.

The Congress can still have some hopes in south Gujarat, the predominantly tribal and conventionally pro-Congress region of the state, but there are not many seats here and the Congress cannot hope for a sweep.

Similarly the Congress can expect to pick some additional seats in Saurashtra-Kuchh region, but not as many as would be needed to cover the massive deficit in central and north Gujarat.

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