Temptation time for Congress, dark days for BJP

SEAT ARITHMETIC: The UPA is expected to get 121 Lok Sabha seats in states ruled by alliance parties.

                  

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New Delhi: The Congress and its allies would have secured 267 seats and the NDA 133 seats if a mid-term poll were to be a held in the first week of September, says an opinion poll conducted by CNN-IBN, CNBC-TV18 and The Indian Express.

But the Government must not celebrate: a significant number of voters believe inflation, corruption and the condition of farmers has become worse in the last three years.

Only 14 per cent respondents in the opinion poll wanted a mid-term election, but the row between the Government and it’s Left Front allies may lead to just that. How will the major parties fare in the event of a mid-term poll? What impact such a poll would have on India?

CNN-IBN’s Editor-in-Chief Rajdeep Sardesai asked this to a panel of academics, politicians and journalists.

Professor Yogendra Yadav, of the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies — which conducted the opinion poll — explained the figures and their political impact. The politicians on the show were: BJP MP Ravi Shankar Prasad; Congress MP Abhishek Manu Singhvi; CPM MP Md Salim and TDP leader and former Andhra Pradesh chief minister,N Chandrababu Naidu.

The journalists were: Diptosh Majumdar, CNN-IBN’s National Affairs Editor, and Varghese K George, Senior Editor, Politics, The Indian Express.

The major political parties had a common view: mid-term polls were unlikely but they were ready for it.

Singhvi said the Congress must not be blamed for a mid-term poll. "The Congress has not asked for a poll and it doesn’t expect it either but we are ready if an election happens," he said. "There is no question of running away."

Prasad said the BJP would "love" to see the Government collapse but didn’t think elections were likely now. "This nuclear fusion—disagreement over the Indo-US nuclear deal—between the Left and the Government is just shadowboxing. The Left is having the best of times: power without accountability," he said.

Salim said the BJP may wish the Government’s collapse but the Left will behave responsibly and support the Government — as long as it follows the Common Minimum Programme.

Naidu, whose party is a member of the The United Nationalist Progressive Alliance (the Third Front), said the Congress and then the Left would be held responsible if the country was forced into a snap poll.

Seats Projection

The Congress is projected to get 267 seats in the event of a snap poll but its vote share would decline by three percent—a figure the party says it could live by.

As Singhvi said: "Just as we have learnt to be not very sad with your figures we have learnt not to be very happy too. If the 267 figures works we would be happy."

The UPA’s vote share may decline but the BJP-led NDA has worse news : it’s expected to get just 133 seats. Prasad said he was skeptical about opinion polls. "In 2004 these projections gave us a big lead and there was no hostility to the NDA government. What were the results? A party in power has a benefit but once elections are announced and the process starts that benefit may not stay," he said.

The Left Front’s tally is expected to decrease 45 seats—should it then force an election in the country? Salim again said the four Left parties were not forcing an election and promised they “would not bring down the Government but want it to behave according to the commandments in the Common Minimum Programme.”

The Third Front is expected to get just 49 seats, but Naidu was not disappointed. "There is anti-incumbency and once elections start the Congress is going to face problems — just wait and see," said Naidu.

The Best Times For The Congress?

Would 267 seats tempt the Congress to announce polls? "The Congress doesn’t have to depend on the BSP and neither on the Left to a certain extent. It has 14 other allies and can form a government. It’s the best situation for the Congress to go in for polls without batting an eyelid," said Diptosh Majumdar.