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The Number Game: Best of the best

TimePublished on Tue, Jan 23, 2007 at 23:21, Updated on Mon, Jun 18, 2007 at 05:25 in Nation section

MAN FRIDAY: Majority of those polled say Sonia Gandhi is the best replacement for Manmohan Singh.

MAN FRIDAY: Majority of those polled say Sonia Gandhi is the best replacement for Manmohan Singh.


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New Delhi: The State of the Nation Survey had over 15,000 respondents in 19 states and 970 localities.

The survey was conducted between January 9 and January 14, close to 500 interviewers.

Seventy-two per cent of India's population is in rural areas, our survey had 76 per cent representation from rural areas.

Women comprise 48 per cent of our population, while our survey had 45 per cent women respondents.

Eighty-one per cent of our population is Hindu, and in our survey 80 per cent of respondents were Hindu.

Thirteen per cent of India's population is comprised of Muslims, while 12 per cent of our respondents were Muslims.

Sixteen per cent of our population are Adivasis, while our survey had 20 per cent Adivasis.

Changing fortunes since 2004

Stronger than

Before

Weaker than

Before

Same
Congress
32%
8%
24%
BJP
10%
26%
26%
(Rest No Opinion)

Representative Sample
Actual
Survey
Rural
72
76
Women
48
45
Hindu
81
80
Muslim
13
12
Dalit
16
20
Adivasi
8
8

Sonia Vs Vajpayee as popular choice for PM

1998

1999

2004

2006

January

2006

August

2007

January

Sonia
17.7%
26.9%
27.2%
23.8%
27.9%
28.3%
Vajpayee
26.8%
37.1%
38.3%
19.3%
18.5%
18.5%
CSDS NES Series (1998-2004)

Replacement of Manmohan Singh (Only Congress voters)
Sonia Gandhi should take over
45%
Manmohan Singh should continue
28%
Someone else from Congress to replace
9%
No opinion
18%

Vote Share
Alliance

Survey

January 2007

UPA
43.2%
NDA
28.1%
Left Front
5.9%
Others
22.8%

Vote share of alliances if Lok Sabha elections are held tomorrow
Alliance
2004
2006 (Jan)
2006 (Aug)
2007 (Jan)
UPA
36.5%
42.3%
44.4%
43.2%
NDA
35.9%
32.3%
30.8%
28.1%

Seats projection
Alliance
2006 (Jan)
2006 (Aug)
2007 (Jan)
UPA
274
306
300
NDA
150
120
115
Left Front
53
60
60
Others
66
57
68

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