UPA ahead in mock poll but it's no honeymoon

THREE ACES: Sonia Gandhi and Manmohan Singh are ahead of any BJP leader, says the survey.

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New Delhi: The Congress and its allies would have secured 267 seats if mid-term elections were held in the first week of September. But the Government must not celebrate.

As the country speculated on the possibility and the outcome of a mid-term poll, The Indian Express with CNN-IBN and CNBC-TV18 commissioned the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) to carry out a mock mid-term poll in the 18 big states across the country. The 18,750 people interviewed for this poll were a miniature India: 73 per cent rural, 45 per cent women, 11 per cent Muslims and 18 per cent dalits. This mock poll brings good news and bad news for the government.

The bad news is that the extended honeymoon that this Government has enjoyed with the electorate seems to be finally coming to an end. No, it is not the Indo-US deal that has exhausted the patience of the aam admi. The voters are either unaware and benignly indifferent or mildly supportive of this deal. If the aam admi is beginning to be unhappy about one thing, it is the economy. He calls it by various names: price rise or unemployment or deteriorating conditions of the farmers.

The Government is seen to be benefiting only the rich, just as its predecessor was. Add to it the strong popular anxieties on corruption and terrorism, and you know why the people are less enthusiastic about endorsing the UPA Government.

Sonia, Manmohan ahead

The good news for the Government is that as yet all this resentment does not translated into big loss of votes and seats. Part of the reason is leadership: Sonia Gandhi and Manmohan Singh continue to be rated and trusted more than L K Advani or any other opposition leader in the electoral fray.

The logic of state-level electoral cycle happens to favour the UPA. The BJP’s incumbency in some of its key states is old and beginning to hurt, while the tide has not turned against the UPA in the states that it rules.