US and us: India, Pak united in state of doubt

YANKEE DOODLING? Experts debate India-Pak-US ties with regard to America’s 'war on terror' and the N-deal.

          

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In the 60th year of Indian and Pakistani independence, CNN-IBN brings you the first-ever joint Indo-Pak opinion poll, in collaboration with The Indian Express and Pakistan’s Dawn News. CSDS conducted the poll in India while AC Nielsen in Pakistan. Over 1,000 Pakistanis in 10 major cities of Pakistan, and over 2,000 Indians in 20 major cities here, participated in the poll.

Is America a friend of India and/or Pakistan? Do Indians care, or even know about the much-touted Indo-US nuclear deal? What is the popular perception of America among young Pakistanis? While the CNN-IBN-Indian Express-Dawn News survey tried finding answers to some of those questions, the State of the Nation debate discussed the startling findings.

The show conducted by Vidya Shankar Aiyar saw an eminent panel discussing the various issues related to US’ role in the region. The panelists were: Minister of State for External Affairs Anand Sharma; Senior Editor, Indian Express, Mini Kapoor; Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy Studies Program, Stephen Cohen; columnist Praful Bidwai and Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Khurshid M Kasuri.

Fission over N-deal

While Prime Minister Manmohan Singh defended the Indo-US nuclear deal in Parliament on Monday, the State of the Nation survey threw up some starling figures.

Twenty per cent of informed Indians surveyed supported the deal and 10 per cent were downright against it. But support for the deal also comes from the 12 per cent pollsters who said they trusted Government with knowing the best. Nine per cent of those surveyed had no opinion.

However, a staggering 49 per cent of those surveyed had not heard of the deal ever!

With these findings it’s clear that the highly technical Indo-US nuclear deal has not found many Indians interested. So, has the UPA Government failed to take what perhaps is its most significant achievement to the masses?

MOS-External Affairs Anand Sharma indicated it was more about being in the know of things than publicity. “Those who know what is in interest of India endorse the Government’s initiative in ensuring that the nuclear apartheid against India ends,” he said.

According to Sharma India could not be a part of the 21st century by existing in isolation and, therefore, the deal assumed significance.

Sharma also said he wasn’t too worried about the findings of the survey as the sample size was too small. “In a country of a billion people, if 2,000 people feel a certain way, the survey – with due respect to agencies concerned – will not throw up correct figures,” he said.

However, Mini Kapoor of the Indian Express couldn’t agree less with Sharma. She reasoned that while Indians, in general, were very curious about Indo-US relationship, it was surprising as to why the nuclear deal wasn’t scoring high in terms of popularity.

Sharma countered Kapoor’s point and said the question was not about the deal being popular. It was about the two nations arriving at a consensus despite US laws being strict about not having a deal with a country that had conducted nuclear tests. “That’s why we were talking to US to get the deal through,” he said.

The oft-repeated critique of the Government – from BJP and to a certain extent the Left allies – has been using Indo-US deal for electoral politics. However, Sharma rubbished the charge. “It’s the highest insult to institutional democracy if a PM is not allowed to make a suo motu statement,” he said referring to the furor in Parliament over PM’s speech.

But just why should the Left oppose the deal? What’s the rationale behind it? Columnist Praful Bidwai said the larger question was why a large section of MPs were opposed to the deal. “Many see this as India’s political embrace of Washington. They feel, wrongly, that this will cap India’s arsenal,” he said.

While India – or at least the UPA Government – was reveling in the achievement of having cracked the deal, Pakistan was conspicuous by its sulking. In fact, the country even made its displeasure publicly known on more than one occasion.

US is biased, says Pak

Kasuri seemed to echo the larger Pakistani sentiment and accused US of an India bias. “We have told US that there’s a need for a criteria-based approach. If you ask Pakistanis, they’d say US is not being even-handed,” he said.

Kasuri said Pakistan would continue to talk to US about the issue, keeping in mind that nuclear parity has brought peace to the south-Asian region. “We will continue to press our case and build nuclear reactors,” he said.

He also made clear that, unlike India, Pakistan was not interested in reusing the old fuel and will instead push for a fresh deal.

But just how possible is that? Will Pakistan’s pipe-dream ever get fulfilled? Researcher Stephen Cohen clarified why Pakistan lost out in the first place.

“In the long term Pakistan may be eligible for some kind of a similar deal. But in short term, Pakistan is dealing with China. So while it qualified the criteria-based approach, this was something US couldn’t deal with. Politics, more than anything else, kept Pakistan out of this arrangement,” Cohen said, adding that if Pakistan could be considered, US will be pressured into considering Israel by the same standards.

The war on terror: US and them

Another predominant issue surrounding the India-Pak-US ties is terrorism and America’s “war on terror.” The popular sentiment in India and Pakistan seems to be that US uses the phrase to reaffirm its hegemony over the world. While 84 per cent Indians were of this view, 78 per cent Pakistanis also agreed.

US action in Afghanistan and Iraq seem to be at the root of such opinion with just 46 per cent Indians willing to give credit to US for establishing a democracy there. In Pakistan, the sentiment is more anti-US with only 26 per cent coming out in support of America.

Similar figures emerged in case of Iraq where a staggering 75 per cent Indians and 66 per cent Pakistanis opined that US was plundering in the name of establishing democracy there.

Cohen said he was not surprised by the public mood. While Sharma had dismissed the poll, Cohen said the findings were, indeed, reflective of public mood. “When you ask mass public these questions, you get answers reflecting public opinion. Even many Americans are critical of the American engagement in Iraq,” he said.

Another starling revelation was the figures that came up in favour and against al-Qaeda. 9/11 attacks in the US and the subsequent crackdown on al-Qaeda seems to have elicited startlingly different sentiments from India and Pakistan. While 41 per cent Indians believe al-Qaeda was responsible for 9/11 only 5 per cent Pakistanis agreed.

Surprisingly, 25 per cent of Indians and 36 per cent of Pakistanis surveyed had not even heard of the incident.

So who is responsible for 9/11 attacks? Both Indians (77 per cent) and Pakistanis (86 per cent) were united in blaming the US foreign policy. Only the remainder believed the country was a victim.

Cohen insisted the figures still didn’t surprise him. “We have seen these figures in other countries too. Pakistan in particular is anti-US. This just reflects the stereotypes and untruths that do the rounds,” he said.

The researcher dismissed the sentiment as a “mob attitude” that had no proximity with truth. “If you had a poll on film stars, you will get equally divergent opinions,” he said.

Kasuri said the finding of the poll – that Pakistani youth seemed to have a benign attitude towards al-Qaeda – were inaccurate. “How can this be true? They are killing our people too. Our soldiers have died defending the border. It depends on how the question is asked,” Kasuri defended.

Kapoor said the findings indicated that while there was a clear lack of information and knowledge among the masses, it also showed that people were deeply concerned. “In some way our leaders have to reinvent the charts to reach out to people,” she said.

US: A friend or a foe?

Nearly 38 per cent Indians felt US was more friendly with Pakistan than with India. The equation was turned on its head when Pakistanis were asked. Fifteen per cent of them said US was more friendly with India and only nine per cent said it was good with Pakistan.

Fifty-three per cent of Indians and 40 per cent Pakistanis believed that US is a friend of neither country. Sharma maintained he was skeptical about the figures. “As far as India and US go, the multi-sectoral engagement is only recent,” he said. He said the “historic handshake” between two largest democracies of the world was a positive signal.

Kasuri said whether or not US is a friend is decided by the time the question is asked. “If you asked the question to Indians at the time when the agreement on F-16s was made, they would have said US is closer to Pakistan. If you asked them during the passage of Indo-Pak deal, their opinion would change. Similar opinion goes in Pakistan,” he said.

However, Cohen closed the discussion by saying that one had to recognise that Indo-US relationship was growing faster than US-Pak relationship. “There’s an old saying ‘Yankee go home, but take me with you.’ That clearly answers how the two economies are growing together,” he wrapped up.