What next: End of Mush era or more chaos?

FATE HANGS: Musharraf's position could be in danger if the election produces a hostile parliament.

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As nuclear-armed Pakistan goes to polls, it has its neighbours and the West shuddering over what might happen next in a country at risk of being destabilised by Taliban and al Qaeda.

Here are some of the possible election scenarios, based on Pakistani political analysts and foreign diplomats assessments:

THE BACKDROP:

> Although it is not a presidential vote, US ally President Pervez Musharraf's position could be in danger if the election produces a hostile parliament that could seek his impeachment.

> Musharraf, who came to power as Army Chief in a 1999 coup, secured a second term as president by imposing emergency rule in November for a few weeks in order to purge the Supreme Court of judges who stood in his way.

> Opinion polls show most Pakistanis do not believe Musharraf should lead them any longer and, having quit the army to become a civilian president, he is regarded as weaker than ever before.

> The country is still reeling from the shock of opposition leader Benazir Bhutto's assassination on December 27, and campaigning has been low key due to security fears after a wave of suicide attacks and violence across the northwest.

> The West is concerned that a Pakistan caught in political flux could lose focus in the war on terrorism, though the United States appears confident in new Army Chief General Ashfaq Kayani.

NEXT: MUSHARRAF'S HOLD ON POWER: