What next for Pakistan? Future tense, uncertain

REST IN PEACE: Benazir's husband Asif Ali Zardari (right in white cap), lays a shawl with Quranic verses on her grave.

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Keywords: Assassination, Benazir Bhutto, Pakistan,

New Delhi: Benazir Bhutto is dead but many fear more blood will be shed now through retaliatory assassinations targetting politicians close to Pakistan president Pervez Musharraf.

Musharraf’s detractors and observers fear more attacks by emboldened jehadis as well.

“Terrorism is growing by the day. This year was the worst we've ever had. What new is he (Musharraf) going to do? He's not the solution to our problem, he is the problem. General Musharraf is like a red rag to a bull,” said Tehreek-e-Insaf leader Imran Khan.

The Pakistan People's Party also faces an uncertain future. It has the Bhutto Cult to keep alive and may have to turn to Benazir's husband for leadership. But Asif Zardari lacks mass appeal .

Other candidates for the top job include Makhdoom Amin Fahim could well turn out to be Pakistan's Narsimha Rao. But Fahim too lacks charisma.

The mass appeal and charisma is more than made up by prominent leader of the lawyers' movement Aitzaz Ahsan. Ahsan was jailed after Emergency was imposed and remains under house arrest.

“Fahim may be the interim leader but very soon his leadership will be challenged by rising leaders in Punjab like Aitzaz Ahsan. The PPP will have a split in its ranks if not spilt totally,” says ex-envoy to Pakistan G Parthasarthy.

The future looks even more bleak for Musharraf. Already blamed by almost all major players in Pakistani politics for Benazir's “murder”. Musharraf's days, many say, are now numbered.

Says strategic analyst K Subrahmanyam, “He will be dumped by both the US and the Pakistani army. The possibility of this happening is reasonably high.”

Musharraf clearly is in an unenviable position. If he gets elections conducted, they will not be credible. If he postpones them, he will be blamed. That’s if he manages to hang on to his throne.

So where does he lead Pakistan from here? To a short spell of martial law and a farcical election a few months down the line? Or to a prolonged and bloody crackdown against iehadis along with genuine democracy? Only time will tell.