Why Cong has upper hand in K'taka | Methodology

STATE OF AFFAIRS: CNN-IBN panel analyses and discusses the Karnataka pre-poll findings.

                

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The Congress appears to be leading the race to form the next government in Karnataka having managed an early edge ahead of the three-round polling for the state Assembly elections, an exclusive CNN-IBN-Deccan Herald opinion poll conducted by CSDS has suggested.

The poll finds the current mood of the Karnataka electorate favours Congress with the party expected to win 114 seats in the 224-seat Assembly, giving it a slender, but a clear majority. This means a gain of 49 seats for the Congress over the last elections held in 2004.

Karnataka voters were also asked who was there preferred chief ministerial candidate. The poll also tracked which way was the wind blowing in urban and rural Karnataka and across the six regions of the state. The issue of spiraling prices and will it affect the Congress's chances was also raised.

To discuss the findings of the poll CNN-IBN Editor-in-Chief Rajdeep Sardesai was joined by Yogendra Yadav, Political Analyst, CSDS; Diptosh Majumdar, CNN-IBN National Affairs Editor and Rajeeva L Karandikar, Executive Vice-President, Cranes Software.

Congress leader SM Krishna, Bharatiya Janata Party MP Ananth Kumar and MC Nanaiah of the Janata Dal (Secular) also joined the debate.

Yogendra Yadav set the ball rolling by clarifying that the opinion poll was a fairly comprehensive one.

"For a pre-election survey it is a very comprehensive one. It was conducted in 75 constituencies, which is every third constituency of the newly drawn boundaries. We have gone to 300 villages and urban centers and interviewed more than 5000 people. This is fairly comprehensive and completely representative of Karnataka," Yogendra claimed.

Diptosh Majumdar said the Karnataka elections would be fairly significant in the national context.

"The main poll issues being raised by the Opposition are terror and price rise. BJP is raising these issue and we will soon know if these will have bearing on the other elections that are coming up or not," Diptosh said.

Even though the Congress was projected as having a big lead over its rivals but the BJP the findings that its leader BS Yediyurappa was the most preferred chief ministerial candidate came as a shot in the arm.

"He is a very dear friend of mine and we have been working together for the last 20 years and the BJP has grown from strength to strength. From 2.6 per cent of vote share to 32 per cent of vote share in 2004 we became the leading party in Karnataka. I am happy that Yediyurappa is leading in the popularity race," Ananth Kumar said.

When SM Krishna was asked as to why is there no chief ministerial candidate from the Congress, he replied that his party has its own way of functioning.

"Congress has its own way of making a chief minister. We do not project any body and even in 1999 we did not project any body as a chief ministerial candidate. I am the chief campaigner for the party and there is a methodology as to how we go about selecting a chief minister. The Congress legislature party meets, it elects the leader in consultation with the Congress High Command and that has been the convention," Krishna said.

Diptosh pointed out the reason as to why Congress leaders were lagging behind in the chief ministerial race.

"Many Congress people who are from Karnataka are interfering from Delhi. That is the biggest problem for Krishna. People don’t know if Krishna is a chief ministerial candidate and so he may have got fewer votes," he said.

When the respondents were asked which government in the last eight years was the best according to them, 35 per cent went for HD Kumaraswamy's government of the JD (S). Twenty-four per cent said it was Krishna's government while only 14 per cent said that Dharam Singh's Congress government was the best.

Surprisingly only nine per cent of the respondents gave thumbs up to the Yediyurappa government.

Yogendra said, "I was surprised by this poll. Except on corruption and law & order everywhere the Karnataka voter said that during his (Kumaraswamy's) tenure things got better. Whatever the media may say, Kumaraswamy’s image was not too bad."

The BJP has also made the betrayal by the JD (S) the main poll plank. But when people were asked what they thought about the JD (S)'s withdrawal of support to the Yediyurappa government, 35 per cent of the respondents said it was justified. Another 35 per cent said it was no justified while 30 per cent of the respondents had no opinion on the issue.